Data trends at meteoLCD: 1998 to 2009


Trends computed from yearly averages at meteoLCD, Diekirch, Luxembourg.
Graphs may be freely copied and used, under the condition to cite:
MASSEN, Francis: Data trends at meteoLCD, 1998 to 2009. http://meteo.lcd.lu

Older trends are here!

Ground Ozone [ug/m3]
("bad ozone")

negative trend: -1.4 ug/m3 per year

 

mean : 39.7 ug/m3
stdev:     6.5

 

See [1] [2] [3] [17]

Total Ozone Column [DU]
("good ozone")


positive trend: +2.5 DU per year

(+1.4 without year 1999; Uccle
[16] gives +1.25  for the 1990-2008 period)

calibration factor applied if needed!



mean : 321.2   all 2009 values adjusted for
stdev :   15.9   recalibration, effective 15Sep09

See [4] [8] ([8] shows strong
positive trend starting 1990 for
latitudes 45-75 North, Europe):
See also recent EGU2009 poster [16].

CO2 mixing ratio in ppmV

 

The 1998-2001 data are too unreliable to be retained for the trend analysis.

For 2002-2009:

positive trend: + 1.6 ppmV per year (less than the previous one which was 2.15)

mean:   402.4 ppmV
stdev:        5.0 ppmV


See this figure

Air temperature [C]

positive trend from 1998 to 2009: + 0.03 C per year

 

mean : 10.33 C      2000 to 2009:  10.40C
stdev:    0.31
                                         0.29

As the sensor has been moved several times, this trend should be taken with caution!
Practically no warming from 2000 to 2009:
(meteoLCD:     0.075C/decade)
Findel airport: 0.115 C/decade (UHI?)

(meteoLCD/Findel plots here and here)

UAH trend for the past 10 years: 0.05 C/decad. [12]
Highest decadal Central England warming trend from 1691 to 2009: +1.86C/decade for 1694-1703!
See also [15]

Diurnal Temperature             
Range (DTR)  [C]


DTR = daily max - daily min temperature

positive trend: + 0.05 C per year


mean:  8.47 C
stdev:  0.55


Note that daily maximum rises faster than daily minimum! The increase in DTR is also documented here!

See [5] and [13]

.
Total Yearly Rainfall [mm]

negative trend: - 24 mm per year

mean : 732.7 mm
stdev : 141.6 mm

Rainfall in Diekirch may be very different from that at the Findel airport !

Findel: 890 mm

Note the good fit by a simple sinus function of period 10 years (best fit);
rainfall changes may be periodic and a linear trend may well be meaningless!
[6] gives medium term periods of 10 to12 years for the  region from England to eastern Germany.

Solar energy on a horizontal plane

 

negative trend: -3.6 kWhm-2 per year
and -11.1 kWhm-2y-1 since 2004 (end of solar cycle #23), which should cause a cooling of 0.56 C according to [15]: meteoLCD observations show a warming of 0.056 Cy-1 ~ flat trend.

mean: 1114 kWhm-2
stdev:    50  kWhm-2

[14] finds 0.7 Wm-2y-1 for West-Europe 1994-2003 , meteoLCD +1Wm-2y-1 for 1998-2003.


see also [9]

Sunshine duration
(derived from pyranometer data by Olivieri's method)

positive trend: + 4 hours per year

mean:  1677 hours
stdev:     195 hours

Note strong negative trend from 2005 to 2009.

Findel airport (Campbell-Stokes): 1880 hours

 

Biologically eff. UVB dose on a horizontal plane in kWh/m2

Slight positive trend: + 0.5 eff.Wh/m2 per year

 

mean:  0.130 eff. kWh*m-2
stdev:  0.010 eff. kWh*m-2

Note negative trend of -0.4 effWhm-2y-1 from 2004 to 2009, in accordance to the dimmimg measured  by the pyranometer and the UVA sensor.

So this dimming is confirmed by 3 independant instruments!

See [10]

UVA dose on a horizontal plane in kWh/m2

slight positive trend: + 0.2 k Whm-2 per year

mean:  54 kWh/m2
stdev:    5 kWh/m2

 

Note strong negative trend of -1 kWhm-2y-1 from 2004 to 2009, in accordance to the dimmimg measured  by the pyranometer.

NO concentration in ug/m3

The 1998-1999 data are too unreliable to be retained.

For 2000-2009::

negative trend: -0.6 ug/m3 per year
( = 44% reduction relative to 2000)

mean:   9.7 ug/m3
stdev:   1.7 ug/m3

see [11] which gives ~30% reduction from 1990 to 2005 for the EU-15 countries.

NO2 concentration in ug/m3

The 1998-1999 data are too unreliable to be retained.

For 2000-2009:

negative trend: - 0.5 ug/m3 per year

mean: 21.5 ug/m3
stdev:   2.2 ug/m3

 

References:

1 Europe's Environment 4th AR (2007) Fig. 2.2.3 http://reports.eea.europa.eu/state_of_environment_report_2007_1/en/Belgrade_EN_all_chapters_incl_cover.pdf
2 EPA: Ozone trends. http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html
3

Jonson et al: Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels? Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 5, 59575985, 2005. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/5/5957/2005/acpd-5-5957-2005.pdf

4 Ozone trends at Uccle  http://ozone.meteo.be/ozone/trends.php
5 Rebetez, Beniston: Analyses of the elevation dependency of correlations between sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range this century in the Swiss Alps. 1998.
6 R.G. Vines, CSIRO: European rainfall patterns. International Journal of Climatology, vol.5, issue 6, p. 607-616.
7 http://global-warming.accuweather.com (15 Jan 2009).
8 J.W. Krzyscin, J.L.Borkowski: Total ozone trend over Europe: 1950 - 2004. ACPD, 8, 47-69, 2008.
9 NASA: Solar Physics: The Sunspot Cycle.
10 de Backer et al: ftp://ftp.kmi.be/dist/meteo/hugo/posters/20080630tromso_hdb.pdf (temporarly unavailable)
11 EEA: Emission trends of NOx 1990 - 2005
12 L. Motl: http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/12/uah-msu-temperatures-for-2009-and.html . Dec.2009
13 K. Makovski: The daily temperature amplitude and surface solar radiation..Dissertation for the degree of doctor of sciences. ETHZ 2009.
14 A. Ohmura: Observed long-term variations of solar irradiance at the earth's surface. Space Science Reviews (2006) 125: 111-128
15 J. van Oldenvorgh: Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Clim.Past. 16Jan.2009
16 Van Malderen, De Backer, Delcloo: Revision of 40 years of ozone measurements in Uccle, Belgium. Poster, EGU2009, Vienna.
17 EEA: Air pollution by ozone across Europe during summer 2009

            

  

 


file: meteolcd_trends.html

francis.massen@education.lu
last revision:06 Mar 10