Press Release from The Science & Environmental Policy Project 6 December 2007
Contact: Dr S Fred Singer, President, SEPPsinger@SEPP.org 703-920-2744
Climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia
report that observed patterns of temperature changes (‘fingerprints’) over the last thirty years are not in
accord with what greenhouse models predict and can better be explained by natural factors, such as solar
variability. Therefore, climate change is ‘unstoppable’ and cannot be affected or modified by controlling
the emission of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, as is proposed in current legislation.
These results are in conflict with the conclusions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and also with some recent research publications based on essentially the same data.
However, they are supported by the results of the US-sponsored Climate Change Science Program (CCSP).
The report is published in the December 2007 issue of the International Journal of Climatology of the
Royal Meteorological Society [DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651]. The authors are Prof. David H. Douglass (Univ.
of Rochester), Prof. John R. Christy (Univ. of Alabama), Benjamin D. Pearson (graduate student), and Prof.
S. Fred Singer (Univ. of Virginia). The fundamental question is whether the observed warming is natural or
ABSTRACT of the paper: "A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions" here!
Lead author David Douglass said: “The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric
temperature trends, does not show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming. The
inescapable conclusion is that the human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make only a negligible contribution to climate warming.”
Co-author John Christy said: “Satellite data and independent balloon data agree that atmospheric warming
trends do not exceed those of the surface. Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric
trend values be 2-3 times greater. We have good reason, therefore, to believe that current climate models
greatly overestimate the effects of greenhouse gases. Satellite observations suggest that GH models ignore
negative feedbacks, produced by clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of carbon
Co-author S. Fred Singer said: “The current warming trend is simply part of a natural cycle of climate
warming and cooling that has been seen in ice cores, deep-sea sediments, stalagmites, etc., and published in
hundreds of papers in peer-reviewed journals. The mechanism for producing such cyclical climate changes
is still under discussion; but they are most likely caused by variations in the solar wind and associated
magnetic fields that affect the flux of cosmic rays incident on the earth’s atmosphere. In turn, such cosmic
rays are believed to influence cloudiness and thereby control the amount of sunlight reaching the earth’s
surface—and thus the climate.”
■ Our research demonstrates that the ongoing rise of atmospheric CO2 has only a minor influence
on climate change. We must conclude, therefore, that attempts to control CO2 emissions are
ineffective and pointless. – but very costly.