The Global Warming Sceptic  (2017-2018)
version 2.2  14 Feb 2009

This page does not represent an official position of the Lycée Classique de Diekirch or the Ministry of Education on climate change and global warming. The official position of the Ministry of Environment of Luxembourg can be found here. If you do not want to read the following links and discussions, please go back!

Please take a step back, and stay cool for a moment. Shut your ears off from the deafening cries and shouts of the global warming advocates, and sharpen your mind. Try to answer the questions outlined in the papers given hereafter, and be open for good reasoning: these pages might make you think again, and wonder, if the mobiles of all these climate catastrophers are pure .... 

Working for clean air and an unpolluted atmosphere is a laudable aim, but forgetting to compare the magnitude of man-made pollutants to the natural sources, or having an absolute faith in measurement data of often dubious origin, is unscientific at least, and foolish certainly. The climate  is "the changing state of the atmosphere", so do not expect a steady state situation. Do not forget either that the sun is the engine which drives everything, and that the output of that engine is in constant change!

The newest additions to this link list are on top!    

Huge Reference of papers and articles on climate change and related problems!  Links to web sites, books and videos not embracing the IPCC consensus


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"Quotes"  Hockey-Stick discussions

last update: 19 Jul 2018

Save the oceans...stop recycling plastic Prof. Mikko Paunio (University of Helsinky) has a very interesting paper (published by the GWPF), where he suggests to stop recycling plastics and burn it instead in incinerators. This to avoid the leakage of disused plastic shipped (by many EU countries) to Asia, where a big part finds its way into the streams and the oceans. He concludes that "Austria, Denmark and Sweden have been at the forefront ... and should be seen as environmental leaders. However, their remarkable progress in managing MSW (municipal solid waste)... is now being compromised by the EU’s new anti-incineration stance."
Compendium on the German Energiewende he "Bundesinitiative für vernünftige Energiepolitik" VERNUNFTKRAFT has published a large Compendium on the German Energiewende, whose "ambitious" targets for 2020 will not be achieved (link to English translation).
The compendium says that "
wind and solar energy, which seem to promise a quick fix, are not simple alternatives to fossil fuels... What we therefore need is a large-scale and generous energy research programme that covers all aspects of energy efficiency, storage, transport and generation in a technology neutral manner..."
Original German edition here.
Tokamak Energy A new break-through on the way for a small nuclear fusion reactor. The privately financed company Tokamak Energy (Oxford, UK) has achieved in its ST4 prototype reactor a plasma hotter than 15 million degrees C. More here and read  here of the now defunct Alcator C-Mod which set a world record in 2016 in the USA.
Watch this time-lapse video of the construction of the ST40 which gives a good idea of its small scale. Lockheed-Martin patented its Compact Fusion Reactor recently in Feb.2018: look here and here.  So there is much research worldwide on smaller fusion reactors which might become operational well in advance of the ITER behemoth.
Speak about this to the people who think that nuclear energy belongs to the past!
A Critical Look at Claims for Green Technologies

Vaclav SMIL, emeritus professor of the University of Manitoba, published a very interesting article in the IEEE Spectrum (3Jun2018):  "...many of today’s ambitions will not become tomorrow’s realities..." and concludes "While it is easy to extoll—and to exaggerate—the seductive promise of the new, its coming will be a complicated, gradual, and lengthy process constrained by many realities."

Four questions on climate change. Very interesting article by Garth Paltridge, published at Prof. Judith Curry's blog.
The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity by Nic Lewis and Judith Curry in the Journal of Climate, which finds in essence that the IPCC scenarios run much too hot!
Read Dr. Roy Spencer's comment here.
State of the Climate 2017 Prof. Ole Humlum (the author of the website) has written the GWPF report #30. This report uses only observations (not the output of climate models) and discusses the most important climate trends. A crystal clear and sober writing style makes this an absolutely must read !
PAGES2k project Arctic temperatures in perspective: see what the (corrected) PAGES2k project tells us! More on the blog.

Update on the Worsening Particle Radiation Environment Observed by CRaTER and Implications for Future Human Deep‐Space Exploration

The unusually low solar activity brings new dangers for space flight from increasing cosmic rays. Schwadron et al. (University of New Hampshire)  published an update paper to the new limits for days spent in space. Read the blog.
A Case Study in Groupthink Christopher Booker (a journalist, author and historian) has written a very interesting essay on groupthink in the current climate change/global warming debate (essay published as the GWPF Report #28). Prof. R. Lindzen wrote some punching sentences in the foreword like " do otherwise intelligent people come to believe such arrant nonsense despite its implausibility, internal contradictions, contradictory data, evident corruption and ludicrous policy implications." Read the monograph, and make out your own opinion!
Gefahren durch Autoabgase bewusst aufgebauscht? ..says Prof. Dr. med Köhler, a famous German lung specialist. On the many studies which find that NO2 and fine particles are causing xxxxxx deaths per year he says "Diese Studien sind eine der größten Seifenblasen, die es gibt." Now that many cities plan outing Diesel cars, a cooler  appreciation of the many claims that even low levels of NO2 are dangerous is overdue.
The Thorium Molten Salt Reactor

Interesting video ("Thorium - Atomkraft ohne Risiko?"in German) by ARTE on the (rediscovered) molten salt reactor, first proposed by Alvin Weinberg et al. at Oak Ridge Nat. Lab. in the fifties. This type of reactor belongs to the so-called 4th generation, heavily investigated in India and China, but practically ignored by the main-stream media in Germany.

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

This new paper by W.T.Ball (ETHZ) and 21 (!) co-authors made big splashes in the media for its main finding that the total ozone column in the lower stratosphere is declining (contrary to what should be expected if the Montreal protocol was efficient). As usual, journalists did not read the fine look at my blog !

Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change? Short (5 minutes) and easy video at PragerU by Prof. William Happer (Princeton University). You may guess the answer in advance!
The sea-level budget along the Northwest Atlantic coast GIA, mass changes, and large-scale ocean dynamics Paper by Thomas Frederikse et al. (Uni Delft) on sea-level changes along the US Northern West coast. One of the main conclusions is that possible human caused rise (through ice melt) is small compared to natural ground movements. More on the blog.
Benoît Rittaud, interview AGEFI Benoît Rittaud, president of the French "Association des Climato-Réalistes", mathematician at the Université Paris 13, was interviewed by the Luxembourg journal of finance AGEFI. Read (in French) this crystal clear interview: "Les alarmistes du climat ont remarquablement réussi à se donner l’image de groupes désintéressés, de joyeuses bandes de hippies uniquement préoccupées du sort de la planète. En réalité, il est avant tout question de gros sous..."
Diurnal cloud cycle biases in climate models A new paper by Yin et al. (Nature Communications) finds that climate models have big errors with the daily cloud cycle: they get the amplitude and the phase (= hour of maximum) wrong, which can lead to a radiative error up to 2.7 W/m2 to be compared to the 3.7 W/m2 radiative forcing assumed by the increase of atmospheric CO2 since pre-industrial times. Read also here.
Wieviel Zappelstrom veträgt das Netz?

Watch the presentation by Prof. Hans-Werner SINN given at the LMU (Ludwig-Maximilian Universität München) on the German Energiewende (duration: 01:15). "Wissen wir wirkich was wir tun? ...zumal wenn man bedenkt wie wenig zum Schluss bei dieser Sache herauskommt". Read the paper on which  this presentation is based.

Increased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei. With solar activity at a historic low, the dwindling solar wind is unable to chase away the cosmic rays reaching the earth. As a consequence, atmospheric (stratospheric) radioactivity is increasing since 2015! According to Svensmark's cosmic rays theory (and experiments), the result should be an increase in (lower) cloud cover and some cooling.(h.t.
Heretical Thoughts about Science and Society

Fed up with climate scare? Global warming and COP23 blues? Read this gem of an essay (2005) of the great physicist Freeman Dyson: : "As a scientist I do not have much faith in predictions".
You may also watch the same titled video of his presentation at Boston University.

On sea level change Prof. Judith Curry has an interesting (provisional) slideshow on sea level that puts things back into perspective. She predicts 3 to 8 inch (about 7 to 20 cm) from 2017 to 2050, an insignificant number. Just to show how silly the global sea level as a valuable metric is, look here for the sea level changes in Oslo (climate4you graph).What's important is the local sea level change, not a modelized global level.
Climate Change: The Rule in the Geological Record With COP23 coming to steam, it would be a good idea to re-read the presentation by Prof. Alain Préat (ULB): "If one thing has been constant about Earth's climate over geological time, it is constant change."
Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present days records?  ... asks René Orth and co-authors from ETHZ, Uni. Giessen and Uni. Bern in a paper published in IOP (open access). The answer is probably yes (medium confidence in IPCC speak)!  "Our results show medium confidence that summer mean temperatures(TJJA) and maximum temperatures(TXx) in Central Europe in 1540 were warmer than the respective present-day mean summer temperatures (assessed between 1966–2015)".
(h.t. GWPF)
Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle Higher atmospheric CO2 levels increase global plant productivity and water usage efficiency, according to Cheng et al. in Nature Communications (July 2017, link to pdf)
Read blog and this comment here
Daring to Doubt Tony Abbott, former Australian prime minister, gave on the 9th October 2017 a lecture at the GWPF in London.
You might not agree with every statement made, but reflect on these two sentences:
Beware the pronouncement, “the science is settled”. It’s the spirit of the Inquisition, the thought-police down the ages."
2. "A market that’s driven by subsidies rather than by economics always fails. Subsidy begets subsidy until the system collapses into absurdity."
Click for video.
Are Climate Models Overstating Warming? Ross McKitrick (University of Guelph) has a comment on Climate Etc. : "The model-observational discrepancy is real, and needs to be taken into account especially when using models for policy guidance."

Read also here, here and here and this comment from Michel de Rougemont: "To date, no instrumental observations made in our climate system can disentangle anthropogenic effects and natural variations."

The Little Boy

New important publication by Prof. A. Tsonis (atmospheric science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) on ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and its relation to climate change: "...the climate system consists of distinct subsystems whose interplay dictates decadal variability...ENSO and it's cousins do, however, underscore the importance of natural variability in climate change."

The paper has very good non-mathematical explanations and descriptions of chaotic and coupled systems and its attractors

Environmental Reporting in a Post Truth World. Dr. David Blackall  (University of Wollongong) has published an interesting paper at Sage. In a very clear and easy to understand language he gives many examples how the media ignore major scientific results that they find "inconveniant" or ""dissenting". His conclusions: "...journalists need to understand science...they need to question the key players and to look to the agendas that may be driving them..."
(There are 2 errors at page 4: do you find them?)
Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Hurricanes and climate change: Brand-new paper by Hodgins et al. "Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe" published in ScienceDirect: "The number of significant trends was about the number expected due to chance alone"

Read this excellent contribution "What you need to know & are not told about hurricanes" on the Fabius Maximus blog.

Read Dr. Roy Spencer's comment here and this comment in the Spectator (UK) blog here.

Transatomic White Paper 2.1. (Nov.2016) TransAtomicPower is a new startup company created by former young MIT researchers. Its aim is to develop a molten salt nuclear reactor (a modification of the ORNL type) that is inherently safe, creates less than half spent fuel as the actual PWR's, is proliferation resistent and runs for decades providing stable, carbon-free base-load power, and possibly load following for grids impacted by intermittent wind/solar producers.
"Paleoclimate Cycles are Key Analogs for Present Day (Holocene) Warm Period" Renée Hannon, a geoscience advisor at the University of Texas at Dallas, has a very good guest comment at WUWT. Look what will happen when this warm period is going to end similarly to the previous one.
 I really appreciate her conclusion:
"Because the astronomical processes affecting significant climate changes are beyond human control our focus should be on adaptation rather than climate manipulation. It is not a question if cooling will occur but simply a question of when."
It is with great sadness that I have to inform that Prof. Istvan Marko has passed away on July 31th. I. Marko was a regular professor of organic chemistry at the UCL (Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium), and a courageous and outspoken climate realist. His many writings and presentations on climate matters were first class science, crystal clear and often very witty. Look at this interview (2016), and these two videos ([1] [2] in French, Agora Erasmus 2015).

Here links to 4 pdf's, the last one being a presentation given for the Rotary Club in Luxembourg, 2016: [1] [2] [3] [4]
Read also this comment on the NTZ blog
Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5 simulated multidecadal 2 climate variability in the twentieth century

An important new paper in GRL by Kravtsov & Callicutt on the failure of the IPCC CMIP5 model ensemble to correctly represent oceanic oscillations:"The observed internal variability exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations..."
Read also this discussion here.

The Uncertainty has Settled

Watch this excellent documentary from Marijn POELS on Vimeo (video on demand, ~4.5 Euro) questioning "modern" energy trends and changing climate. Featuring Freeman Dyson, Piers Corbyn, Hans von Storch and other scientists.
Free trailer here.

What happened to the traditional role of skepticism in climate science? I am a great fan of Forrest M. MIMS III whom I admire for his qualities of a long standing exceptional "maker", his publications on electronics and an outstanding book on the Mauna Loa research station (look here). This "hors norme" inventor and builder is also the designer of the Microtops instruments we use at meteoLCD for measuring the total ozone column.
He is a climate realist and a strong defender of the virtue of skepticism in science. Read here his comment in WUWT
New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Tempertaure Model

A new paper by Nikolov and Zeller in "Environment Pollution and Climate Change" finds that global average near surface temperature for many celestial bodies depends only on solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure: no need to introduce greenhouse gases to explain the thermal  enhancement at the surface! Read also  blog on this important paper.

Fatalities at wind turbines may threaten population viability of a migratory bat A new paper by Frick et al. in Biological Conservation (Feb.2017) pours cold water on the naive beliefs that wind power may easily save the planet: "...we show that mortality from wind turbines may drastically reduce population size and increase the risk of extinction"
Private Benefit of CO2 and its Social Cost New paper by Prof. Richard TOL (University of Sussex):"The private benefit of carbon (411 $/tCO2) is much higher than the social cost of carbon (12 $/tCO2)."
Nucléaire et Eolien: Etude comparée de démantèlement Very interesting article (in French) by Jean Pierre Riou with surprising results:
cost for nuclear decommissioning: 1.85 €/MWh
cost for wind turbine removal:       4.32 €/MWh
Look also here.
Acceleration in European Mean Sea Level?

This is an excellent new paper by Phil J. Watson in the Journal of Coastal Research (Jan.2017) titled:  (note the question mark!).In short: no acceleration, relative sea-level changes are modest  and are negative in regions where uplifting due to glacial rebound is high (Baltic).
More on the blog.
a very good article (in French) on the many problems of  measuring sea-level with mm precision.

Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau New paper by An et al. finds that the Tibetan Plateau and China cooled down by about 0.2°C during last decade.
Diminishing number of weatherstations

Look at this graph from NOAA showing how the number of land-based weather stations has plummeted during the 1990's. What is more intriguing is that the percentage of air port located stations increased from 40% to 75%: is the measured warming a surprise?
Read this article of Prof. Fred Singer on the subject.
More on the blog.(graphics added to the original figure)

Berliner-Kreis: Klima- und Energie Standpunkt A position of the "Berliner-Kreis" group of conservative CDU members which question and disagree with the official "Merkel" policy (02Jun2017)
About intellectuals and climate alarmism From Frits Bolkestein, the former Dutch minister and European Commissioner. The link shows the English translation of the original Dutch article): "Censorship looms large in the field of climatology, which is not conducive to balanced decision-making...Why do so many intellectuals take pleasure in predicting catastrophes? Is it because they relish attention by the media? Or has it anything to do with Christian guilt feelings?"
Thoughts on the Public Discourse over Climat Change

Discussion on an article by Prof. Richard Lindzen (emerited, MIT) published the 25th April 2017."The accumulation of false and/or misleading claims is often referred to as the ‘overwhelming evidence’ for forthcoming catastrophe."

Tokamak Energy A private UK company is developing a small tokamak-style fusion reactor and achieved its first plasma creation. The company plans to have a small fusion reactor ready to deliver energy into the electricity grid in 2030
Was wäre wenn wir alle elektrisch fahren würden?

Caustic article by physicist Vince Ebert in "Spektrum der Wissenschaften" (19 März 2017): "Um 30 Kilogramm Benzin zu ersetzen, brauchen Sie derzeit eine moderne Lithiumionen-Batterie, die rund 900 Kilogramm wiegt...wir bräuchten sogar knapp 140 neue Kraftwerke oder 220 000 Windräder oder eine Fotovoltaikanlage von der Größe des Saarlands, um den zusätzlichen Strombedarf zu decken"

Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity and Changes in the Earth's Climate New 2017 paper by Russian scientists (Science Academy, Moscow State University) Y.I.Stozhkov et al. (link to paywalled version). They predict (as many others did before) a coming cooling, based on spectral analysis of past climate and correlation of global temperature change with the measured flux of cosmic particles in the lower 0.3 to 2.2 km atmosphere. This paper is refreshingly short and very readable!
A more extensive blog comment is here.
Energiewende - Index Deutschland A new report from McKinsey says that "...Die Kosten steigen weiter....Zentrale Ziele werden verfehlt und rücken in immer weitere Ferne...CO2 Ausstoss weit über dem Limit....das Preisniveau für deutschen Haushaltsstrom liegt 47.3% über dem europäischen Durchschnitt".This report bites and hurts! (more on the BLOG)
Climate models for the layman

An excellent must read new briefing paper by Prof. Judith Curry (ex. GeorgiaTech): "... there is a secular warming trend at least since 1800 (and possibly as long as 400 years) that cannot be explained by carbon dioxide... "

Exxon Mobile 2017 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040 The part of renewables remains rather modest (less than 15%, with wind and solar extremely poor), the total of carbon-free energy (which includes nuclear) about 22%, which leaves still 78% for fossil fuels.
"Tanktourismus-Bericht" Luxemburg 2016 Dr. Dieter Ewringmann from the FiFo Institute (Köln) wrote a report on Luxembourg's pump tourism (i.e. the costs and benefits of selling large quantities of fuel at the pump to drivers from abroad). Read my comments here (with links to short and full versions of the report). All parts (1,2,3 and 4) of the discussion are now on-line.
Third Industrial Revolution Lëtzebuerg

The great "Third Industrial Revolution Lëtzebuerg" report by Jeremy Rifkin has been released.I wrote a multi-part discussion of this 475 page blockbuster in my blog. Links to short and full version are included.

Earth climate identification vs. anthropic global warming attribution Prof. Philippe de Larminat (from Ecole Centrale de Nantes), a specialist in systems theory, has published a very interesting paper in Elsevier's "Annual Reviews in Control". He applies systems theory to the climate data and finds that, contrary to what the  IPCC says, "the natural contributions by solar and internal variability could be the dominant factor in recent global warming".
Excellent and clear paper with some not too difficult maths!

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