Some trends at meteoLCD

Trends computed from yearly averages at meteoLCD, Diekirch, Luxembourg.
Graphs may be freely copied and used, under the condition to cite:
MASSEN, Francis: Data trends at meteoLCD, 1998 to 2013. http://meteo.lcd.lu

Most important conclusions for the last decade (2004 to 2013) linear trends:

1. Solar dimming is -26 kWh*m^-2*decade^-1 [- 2.4 %]
2. Local temperatures are declining by -0.15 °C*decade^-1 [ - 1.5 %]
3. There is no trend in daily min. temperatures, DTR and daily max. show small decrease
4. The winters are cooling by -0.71 °C*decade^-1 [- 24.7%]
5. Ground O3 increases by 2.1 ug*m^-3*decade^-1 (suspicious!), thickness of ozone layer increases by 0.6 DU*decade^-1 [+ 0.2%]
6. Local CO2 mixing ratio increases by 3.2 ppmV*decade^-1 (suspicious!), by +0.98 ppmV*y^-1 from 2002 to 2012 and +0.83 ppmV*y^-1from 2002 to 2013
7. The biologically effective UVB dose declines by 3 eff. Wh*m^-2*decade^-1 [- 2.3%]8. The UVA dose declines by 0.3 kWh*m^-2*y^-1[- 4.0%]
9. Precipitation (rainfall) increases by 77 mm*decade^-1 [+ 1.3%]
10. Energy content of moist air (enthalpy) declines by -0.6 KJ*Kg^-1*decade-1 [-2.1 %]
11. NO2 concentrations increase by 6 ug*m^-3*decade^-1(suspicious) [+ 31%]12. NO concentrations decrease by -3 ug*m^-3*decade^-1 [-30 %]

1	Europe's Environment 4th AR (2007) Fig. 2.2.3 http://reports.eea.europa.eu/state_of_environment_report_2007_1/en/Belgrade_EN_all_chapters_incl_cover.pdf
2	EPA: Ozone trends. http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html
3	Jonson et al: Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels? Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 5, 5957–5985, 2005. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/5/5957/2005/acpd-5-5957-2005.pdf
4	Ozone trends at Uccle http://ozone.meteo.be/ozone/trends.php
5	Rebetez, Beniston: Analyses of the elevation dependency of correlations between sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range this century in the Swiss Alps. 1998.
6	R.G. Vines, CSIRO: European rainfall patterns. International Journal of Climatology, vol.5, issue 6, p. 607-616.
7	http://global-warming.accuweather.com (15 Jan 2009).
8	J.W. Krzyscin, J.L.Borkowski: Total ozone trend over Europe: 1950 - 2004. ACPD, 8, 47-69, 2008.
9	NASA: Solar Physics: The Sunspot Cycle.
10	de Backer et al: ftp://ftp.kmi.be/dist/meteo/hugo/posters/20080630tromso_hdb.pdf (temporarly unavailable)
11	EEA: Emission trends of NOx 1990 - 2005
12	L. Motl: http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/12/uah-msu-temperatures-for-2009-and.html . Dec.2009
13	K. Makovski: The daily temperature amplitude and surface solar radiation..Dissertation for the degree of doctor of sciences. ETHZ 2009.
14	A. Ohmura: Observed long-term variations of solar irradiance at the earth's surface. Space Science Reviews (2006) 125: 111-128
15	J. van Oldenvorgh: Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Clim.Past. 16Jan.2009
16	Van Malderen, De Backer, Delcloo: Revision of 40 years of ozone measurements in Uccle, Belgium. Poster, EGU2009, Vienna.
17	EEA: Air pollution by ozone across Europe during summer 2009
18	Climate4 you: Global temperature trends
19	Lindzen & Choi: On the determination of climate feedback from ERBE data (GRL, 2009)
20	Scafetta, N.: Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2009 (doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.07.007)
21	Massen, F., Beck, E. :Accurate estimation of CO₂ background level from near ground measurements at non-mixed environments in: Leal, W., editor: The Economic, Social and Political Elements of Climate Change Climate Change Management, 2011, Part 4, 509-522. Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0_31
22	De Backer & Van Malderen: Time series of daily erythemal UVB doses at Uccle Belgium. Poster, July 2009.
23	Massen, F.: Sunshine duration from pyranometer readings, 2011
24	Massen F., Calculating moist enthalpy from usual meteorological measurements (July 2010) and Calculating moist enthalpy revisited (Sep. 2010)
25	CDIAC: Online Trends
26	UAH MSU data: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/
27	Vigouroux et al: Evaluation of ozone trends from g-b FTIR observations. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6865–6886, 2008
28	UNEP, Scientific Assessment: Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation http://ozone.unep.org/Assessment_Panels/SAP/Scientific_Assessment_2010/04-Chapter_2.pdf
29	http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/luxembourg
30	K. Makowski: The daily temperature amplitude and surface solar radiation. Dissertation ETH Zürich #18319, 2009
31	http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeitreihe_der_Lufttemperatur_in_Deutschland#Winter
32	Tim Osborne: NAO data (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/datapages/naoi.htm)
33	Helioclim satellite measurements of solar irradiation at http://www.soda-is.com/eng/services/services_radiation_free_eng.php
34	http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/
35	http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~qli/publications/Jiang_2011_GBC.pdf
36	Fung: A Hyperventilationg Biosphere (Sep. 2013)
37	Fraunhofer Institut Stromproduktion : http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/downloads/pdf-files/aktuelles/stromproduktion-aus-solar-und-windenergie-2013.pdf
38	EEA interacive map. http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/interactive/no2
39	Portail de l'Evironnement: http://www.environnement.public.lu/air_bruit/dossiers/PA-reseaux_mesure_air/reseau_automatique/resultats_mesures_live/index.html

Ground Ozone [ug/m³] ("bad ozone") From 1998 to 2013: negative trend: -0.7 ug/m³ per year 1998-2013 mean +/- stdev: 38.8 +/- 6.9 ug/m³ Attention: there are about 15% missing data in 2013 due to frequent sensor failures, so the 2013 data point and the 2004-2013 trend line are suspicious! See [1] [2] [3] [17]
Total Ozone Column [DU] ("good ozone") Mean +/_std: 320.9 +/- 45.8 DU positive trend: +1.6 DU per year, -0.1 since 2002 (Uccle gives +0.95 for the 1998-2010 period) (see also [16]) Calibration multiplier to apply if Uccle Brewer #16 is the reference: 1998 to 2007: * 0.95 2008 to 2010: * 1.00 2011 : * 1.06 2012 : * 1.04 2013 : * 1.06 (provisional) 2013 common days measurements results: Diekirch = 321.6 DU Uccle DS = 342.0 DU Uccle data are from WOUDC (stat.53, Brewer#16, provisional as Dec. data not yet available) 1998 to 2012 mean +/- stdev: Diekirch: 323.8 +/- 15.5 Uccle.: 328.8 +/- 3.5 (Uccle without 2009/10/11) See [4] [8] ([8] shows strong positive trend starting 1990 for latitudes 45°-75° North, Europe): [27] give +1.32 DU/y at the Jungfraujoch for 1995-2004. See also recent EGU2009 poster [16].
CO2 mixing ratio in ppmV The 1998-2001 data are too unreliable to be retained for the trend analysis. 2002 to 2013 mean +/- stdev:: 408.4 +/- 5.3 ppmV trend = +0.83 ppmV per year 2007 to 2013 mean +/- stdev:: 410.9 +/- 4.2 ppmV trend: - 0.77 ppmV per year ! The sharp plunge and negative trend should be taken with caution; there was a change in the calibration gas the 21 Jan. and the primary standard used (600 ppmV) has an accuracy of 1%. All readings <= 370 have been discarded. The 2013 average of 402.9 ppmV is close to those measured by the German stations of Hohenpeissenberg (HPB 400.4, trend +2.5) and Ochsenkopf.(OXK 399.9, trend + 1.67).[34] The right picture shows the asymptotic CO2 values (CO2wind) derived from the model published in [21] . The blue upper curve shows the yearly mean values at Diekirch; the middle red curve the asymptotic CO2 values that would exist if wind velocity was infinite, and the lower green curve the yearly averages at Mauna Loa, augmented by +1.8 ppmV to respect the latitudinal gradient of approx. 0.06 ppm per degree. The asymptotic mixing ratios are reasonably close to those of Mauna Loa (adjusted) up to 2012; the yearly trends calculated from the mean and asymptotic values at Diekirch are noticeably lower (0.83 and 0.88 ppmVy^-1) than the MLO trend of 2.05. Compared trends from 2006 to 2012 for EU sites: Ochsenkopf (OXK): 0.68* Hohenpeissenberg (HPB): 1.68 Diekirch: 1.14 See also [25] The 2013 CO2 data clearly show the summer-time lows, mostly due to the increased photo-synthesis. The amplitude 2A of the best-fit sinusoidal model is about 12 ppmV. The paper [35] gives an annual swing of ~12 ppmV whereas the Hohenpeissenberg (lat. 47.8°) and Ochsenkopf (lat. 50°) measurements suggest about 20 ppmV. A paper discussed at [36] gives an 2A amplitude of about 12 ppmV at ~5km altitude and 50° latitude North. It seems that the annual swing is increasing since 1960 mostly due to enhanced biosphere activity.
Air temperature [°C] Trend from 1998 to 2013: +0.0045 °C per year, practically flat! 1998 to 2013 mean +/- stdev:: 10.29 +/- 0.45 °C 2002 to 2013: 10.34 +/- 0.50 °C The sensor has not been moved since 2002! Strong cooling trend from 2002 to 2013: meteoLCD: - 0.23°C/decade Findel: -0.46°C/decade Global NH Land temperature trends: UAH (satellite) : + 0.03°C/decad [26] CRU (Hadcrut4): - 0.02°C/decad. [18] Highest decadal Central England warming trend from 1691 to 2009: +1.86°C/decade for 1694-1703! See also [15] (which may be obsolete)
Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) [°C] DTR = daily max - daily min temperature For 2002 to 2013: Small negative trend: -0.04 °C per year. Findel DTR trend is -0.05 °C per year (plot shows rounded numbers) 1998 to 2012 mean +/- stdev:: 8.48 +/- 0.55 °C 2002 to 2013: daily max trend slightly negative, daily minimum trend flat, so DTR trend = daily max. trend.! A fingerprint of global warming is that daily minima increase more than daily maxima. Clearly the data do not show this! The BEST data [29] including 2013 are not yet available. See [5], [13] and [30]	.
Winter temperatures [°C] Contrary to what is often suggested in the media, winters are cooling since 2002. The cooling rates per decade are: Diekirch: -0.46 °C/decade Findel: -0.76 °C/decade Germany: -0.94 °C/decade [31] (not on plot) The plot shows the mean temperatures of December (from previous year), January and February. It also shows in brown (right Y-axis) the NAO index for the months Dec to Mar [32] The North Atlantic Oscillation clearly influences our winters; the correlations between the 3 different DJF series and DJFM_NAO are 0.76, 0.77 and 0.79, all significant at the 5% level. The NAO trend is also negative for the 2002 to 2013 period.
Total Yearly Rainfall [mm] 1998 to 2013 mean +/- stdev::mean : 706.9 +/- 143.5 mm . Negative trend of -14.7 mm/year 2003 to 2012: 653.7 +/- 119.2 mm Positive trend of +5.4 mm/year Rainfall in Diekirch may be very different from that at the Findel airport ! Totals for 2013: Diekirch = 680, Findel = 960, Trier = 791 mm. Acceptable simple model: Sinus function of 7 years period (R² = 0.36). Model more or less correctly reflects rising and falling precipitation. [6] gives medium term periods of 10 to12 years for the region from England to eastern Germany.
Solar energy on a horizontal plane mean +/ std:: 1109.8 +/-46.5 kWhm^-2 Visible negative trends: 1998 to 2013: -2.8 kWhm^-2y^-1 2004 to 2013: -2.6 kWhm^-2y^-1 (solar cycle #24 begins Jan. 2009). According to Scafetta's sensitivity k_1s the period 2004 to 2013 should cause a cooling of -0.016 Ky^-1 ([20]). The meteoLCD observations show from 2004 to 2013 a very close cooling of -0.015 Ky^-1 , . (see Addendum 1) Helioclim satellite measurements show ongoing solar dimming over Luxembourg for 1985 to 2005 [33] (see graph) [14] finds 0.7 Wm^-2y^-1 for West-Europe 1994-2003 , meteoLCD +1 Wm^-2y^-1 for 1998-2003.See also [9]
Sunshine duration (derived from pyranometer data by Olivieri's method) Totals for 2013: meteoLCD: 1460.0 hours (215m asl) Findel: 1632.7 hours (365m asl, Campbell- Stokes) Trier: 1499.8 hours (279m asl) Trend: - 2.7 hours per year Mean +/- stdev: 1998 to 2013: 1652.9 +/- 171.3 hours 2004 to 2013: 1636.5 +/- 116.6 Note important negative trend from 2004 to 2013: - 16.3 hours per year = 163 hours/decade! The decline from 2012 to 2013 is -10.8%, to be compared to the data from the Fraunhofer Institut which give a decline of -10.6 % of the German PV "Volllasttunden" [37] See paper [23] by F. Massen comparing 4 different methods to compute sunshine duration from pyranometer
Biologically eff. UVB dose on a horizontal plane in kWh/m² Practically flat trend line for the whole period. mean +/- stdev: 1998 to 2013: 0.130 +/- 0.009 eff. kWhm^-2y^-1 2004 to 2013: 0.129 +/- 0.005 Practically flat trend from 1998 to 2013, but visible negative trend* of - 0.3 eff. Whm^-2y^-1 from 2004 to 2013, in accordance to the dimmimg measured by the pyranometer over the same period. So dimming is confirmed by both pyranometer and UVB sensor See [10] and [22] (poster finds slight positive trend in June (+2%) and negative trend in August (-1%), no trend for other months, for period 1991 to 2008) The decrease in biologically effective UVB is also consistent with the increase of the total ozone column [28]
UVA dose on a horizontal plane in kWh/m² Positive trend: + 0.2 kWhm^-2y^-1, essentially caused by the suspiciously high 2010 reading. Negative trend of -30 Whm^-2y^-1 since 2004, consistent with the pyranometer and UVB data. mean +/- stdev: 1998 to 2013 54.3 +/- 4.8 kWhm^-2y^-12004 to 2013: 54.7 +/- 4.1 The exceptional high 2010 value (which is an extrapolation due to 8% missing data) is dubious. Omitting the 2010 data, the 2004 to 2013 negative trend is - 285 Whm^-2y^-1 ^{The 3 independent measures of Solar energy, UVA and UVB dose all document a solar dimming since 2004.}
NO concentration in ug/m³ The 1998-1999 data are too unreliable to be retained. 2000 to 2013: trend: - 0.3 ugm^-3y^-1 2004 to 2013 rend: idem mean +/- stdev: 2000 to 2013: 9.2 +/- 1.8 ug/m³ 2004 to 2014: 8.5 +/- 1.5 Many missing data from 2011 to 2013 ( 25%, 21% , 8%) so be careful! All these concentrations are very low! Luxembourg-City has a background of 25-30 and rural Vianden (Niklausberg) one of 2.5 (approx. 2013 values from [39]) see [11] which gives ~30% reduction from 1990 to 2005 for the EU-15 countries.
NO₂ concentration in ug/m³ The 1998-1999 data are too unreliable to be retained. 2000 to 2013: trend: + 0.3 ugm^-3y^-1 2004 to 2013 rend: + 0.6 mean +/- stdev: 2000 to 2013: 22.5 +/- 3.9 ug/m³ 2004 to 2014: 22.7 +/- 4.5 Many missing data from 2011 to 2013 ( 25%, 21% , 8%) so be careful! All these concentrations are low! Luxembourg-City has a background of 58 and rural Vianden (Niklausberg) one of 9.4 (average since 1988) [38]
Enthalpy of moist air in kJ/kg See [24] on how the energy content of moist air is calculated. Several authors, as Prof. Roger Pielke Sr. insist that air temperature is a poor metric for global warming/cooling, and that the energy content of the moist air and/or the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) are better. Mean yearly moist enthalpy values are very close, but they may change from zero up to 60 Kj/kg during a year. Moist enthalpy can not be calculated for temperatures <= 0 °C. mean +/- stdev: 2002 to 2013 28.1 +/- 0.7 kJ/kg 2004 to 2013: 27.9 +/- 0.6 Trend is clearly negative: -0.1 KJ/kg per year (or 0.06 for last decade) which is consistent with the trends in temperature, solar energy, UVA and UVB doses.