Data trends at meteoLCD: 1998 to 2018
Trends computed from yearly averages at meteoLCD,
Graphs may be freely copied and used, under the condition to cite:
MASSEN, Francis: Data trends at meteoLCD, 1998 to 2018. http://meteo.lcd.lu
Older trends are here!
Attention: in all trend equations (y = a+b*x) the variable x represents the year, with x = 1 for the first year in the trend period.
Most important conclusions from 1998 (2002, 2004) to 2018 linear trends:
1. Some minor solar dimming since 2004, sunshine
duration decreases by 65
2. Local temperatures show warming of 0.07°C/y since 2002 (2018 was a strong El Nino year)
3. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) trend since 1998 is positive (= no anthropogenic warming fingerprint ).
4. The winter trend since 2002 shows a warming of +0.76 °C*decade-1 ; the trend is very close to that of the winter NAO index (0.68 °C*decade-1)
5. Since 1998 the ground O3 trend is positive, from 2002 to 2018 the total thickness of the ozone layer slightly decreases by 6 DU*decade-1
6. Local CO2 mixing ratio continue to increase, but the huge increase in 2018 could be due to a sensor bias
7. The trend of the biologically effective yearly UVB dose is slightly positive from 2002 to 2018
8. The UVA dose is very slightly decreasing since 2002
9. Precipitation (rainfall) shows a sinusoidal pattern of 5 years period. From 2002 to 2018 the linear trend is slightly negative (-16 mm*decade-1)
10. Energy content of moist air (enthalpy) shows a small positive trend
NO/NOx measurements have been definitively stopped at the end of 2017.
Mean +/-stdev of 2018: 53.9 +/- 31.2 ug/m3
+/- stdev (from yearly means)
Ozone Column [DU]
Mean and stdev of the year 2018: 324.6 +/- 47.0
minimum : 227.3 (27 Sep)
maximum: 480.3 (28 Feb)
180 common day
direct sun readings for 2018 at Uccle and Diekirch:
Trendlines (start year is x =
multiplier to apply to the Diekirch DU data
mixing ratio in ppmV
Attention: The instrument for measuring CO2 (API Teledine E600) has been replaced by a Vaisala GMP343 sensor the 27 Jun 2017. The mean value seems impossible high, so a zero bias should be considered possible!
Mean and stdev of the year 2018: 431.2 +/- 30.8
The 1998-2001 data are too unreliable to be retained
for the trend analysis.
The second picture zooms on the last 5 years, and
gives the readings of Diekirch (DIK), Mauna Loa (MLO) and Hohenpeissenberg (HPB)
from 2007 to 2017; 2018 data are not yet available. Note the very
different elevations! Mauna Loa has no vegetation at all, Diekirch and HPB
similar grass and forests.
The CO2 data (monthly averages) show the summer-time lows, which reflect the impact of variable seasonal photo-synthesis (see here). A simple 12 month periodic sinus pattern was found in 2014 and 2015. Actually, as shown in addendum 3, the CO2 lowering intensity of wind speed seems to be an important modifier of this pattern, possibly masking the effect (or better: the non-effect) of photosynthesis. This happened in 2016 and 2017: the summer low is quite prominent, but the seasonal swing is much less sinusoidal.
See the end of addendum 3 for a picture of CO2 versus windspeed.
Mean and stdev of the year 2018
(from monthly averages):
1998 to 2018 :
10.52 +/- 0.68 °C
sensor location has not been moved since 2002! Sensor is a PT100
(see comments in
2015_only.xls); new 4-20mA
amplifier (with calibration) installed the 4th May 2016.
Range (DTR) [°C]
DTR = daily max - daily min temperature
Mean DTR at Diekirch:
For 1998 to 2018: all trends are positive, the 24hmin
trend is lower than the 24hmax trend.
Trends from 2002 to 2018:
The plot shows the mean temperatures from
December (of previous year) to February. It also shows in
magenta the NAO index for the months Dec to Feb
Enthalpy of moist air in kJ/kg
Mean moist enthalpy of 2018: 32.87 +/- 14.27 kJ/kg
See  on how the energy content of moist air is
calculated. Several authors, (e.g. Prof. Roger Pielke Sr.) insist that air
temperature is a poor metric for global warming/cooling, and that the energy
content of the moist air and/or the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) are better
Yearly Rainfall [mm]
Values of rainfall (precipitation) of the year 2018:
Diekirch: 584.2 mm
Findel: 781.9 mm
1998 - 2018 mean +/- stdev: 695.5 +/- 136.5 mm
The negative trend from 1998 to 2018 seems spectacular:
-94 mm/decade, caused by the very high values of 2000 and 2001.
A good model for the Diekirch data is a
sinus function: the calculation
suggests for the interval 2002 - 2018 a 5.03 years period (~70 months, R2 =
in the model x = 0 corresponds to 1998), with a mean value of 646 mm and an
amplitude of 96 mm; the phase shift of -0.95 rad is close to 1/6 period.
The rainfall pattern is a good example how foolish it is to apply linear regressions to periodic data, something the media, activist groups and many politicians are fond of.
energy on a horizontal plane
Values of total solar energy
of the year 2018:
1998 to 2018 mean +/- stdev: 1113.0 +/- 48.3 kWh/m2
(meteoLCD values derived from pyranometer data by Olivieri's method)
Values of sunshine hours
of the year 2018:
Small negative trends:
The decline from 2015 to 2017 is clearly visible in the German PV electricity production, but the negative trend reverses for the very sunny year 2018 .
 by F. Massen
comparing 4 different methods to compute sunshine duration from pyranometer
This graph shows the plots of the four above-mentioned stations. It should be noted that meteoLCD (Diekirch) is located in a valley, Findel, Trier and Maastricht airport on top of a plateau. The Findel totals are much higher than those of the other stations, which certainly is also partially caused by the use of the Campbell-Stokes instrument known to give too high readings (in July and August the excess of Findel readings was highest).
All 4 stations give totals that practically always vary in the same manner (synchronous increase and decrease).
eff. UVB dose on a horizontal plane in kWh/m2
Erythemal UVB dose of the year 2018: 0.145 kWh/m2
mean +/- stdev:
1999 to 2018: 0.133 +/- 0.008 eff. kWh*m-2y-1
2002 to 2018: 0.133 +/- 0.007
2004 to 2018: 0.132 +/- 0.007
The trend over
2002 - 2018 is slightly positive, the trend line from 1998 to 2018 should be
taken with a grain of salt, as the 1998 readings seem abnormally low.
dose on a horizontal plane in kWh/m2
UVA dose of the year 2018: 62.6 KWh/m2
(some intermittent problems with internal temperature stabilization of the sensor; only readings where temperature was between 24-26°C were retained, what represents 90% of all readings)
mean +/- stdev:
The 2 independent measures of solar energy and UVA doses all point to a very slight solar dimming since 2002 despite 2018 being a very sunny year.
NO and NO2
concentration in ug/m3
(End of measurements useable for trends in 2013. Measurements stopped in 2017).
78% of possible measurements available due to sensor downtime!
see  which gives ~30% reduction from 1990 to 2005 for the EU-15 countries.
|1||Europe's Environment 4th AR (2007) Fig. 2.2.3 http://reports.eea.europa.eu/state_of_environment_report_2007_1/en/Belgrade_EN_all_chapters_incl_cover.pdf|
|2||EPA: Ozone trends. http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html|
Jonson et al: Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels? Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 5, 5957–5985, 2005. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/5/5957/2005/acpd-5-5957-2005.pdf
|4||Ozone trends at Uccle http://ozone.meteo.be/ozone/trends.php|
|5||Rebetez, Beniston: Analyses of the elevation dependency of correlations between sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range this century in the Swiss Alps. 1998.|
|6||R.G. Vines, CSIRO: European rainfall patterns. International Journal of Climatology, vol.5, issue 6, p. 607-616.|
|7||http://global-warming.accuweather.com (15 Jan 2009).|
|8||J.W. Krzyscin, J.L.Borkowski: Total ozone trend over Europe: 1950 - 2004. ACPD, 8, 47-69, 2008.|
|9||NASA: Solar Physics: The Sunspot Cycle.|
|10||de Backer et al: ftp://ftp.kmi.be/dist/meteo/hugo/posters/20080630tromso_hdb.pdf (temporarly unavailable)|
|11||EEA: Emission trends of NOx 1990 - 2005|
|12||L. Motl: http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/12/uah-msu-temperatures-for-2009-and.html . Dec.2009|
|13||K. Makovski: The daily temperature amplitude and surface solar radiation..Dissertation for the degree of doctor of sciences. ETHZ 2009.|
|14||A. Ohmura: Observed long-term variations of solar irradiance at the earth's surface. Space Science Reviews (2006) 125: 111-128|
|15||J. van Oldenvorgh: Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Clim.Past. 16Jan.2009|
|16||Van Malderen, De Backer, Delcloo: Revision of 40 years of ozone measurements in Uccle, Belgium. Poster, EGU2009, Vienna.|
|17||EEA: Air pollution by ozone across Europe during summer 2009|
|18||Climate4 you: Global temperature trends|
|19||Lindzen & Choi: On the determination of climate feedback from ERBE data (GRL, 2009)|
|20||Scafetta, N.: Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2009 (doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.07.007)|
Massen, F., Beck, E. :Accurate
estimation of CO2 background level from near ground
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|22||De Backer & Van Malderen: Time series of daily erythemal UVB doses at Uccle Belgium. Poster, July 2009.|
|23||Massen, F.: Sunshine duration from pyranometer readings, 2011|
|24||Massen F., Calculating moist enthalpy from usual meteorological measurements (July 2010) and Calculating moist enthalpy revisited (Sep. 2010)|
|25||CDIAC: Online Trends|
|26||UAH MSU data: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/|
|27||Vigouroux et al: Evaluation of ozone trends from g-b FTIR observations. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6865–6886, 2008|
UNEP, Scientific Assessment: Stratospheric Ozone and
Surface Ultraviolet Radiation
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|32||Tim Osborne: NAO data (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/datapages/naoi.htm)|
|33||Helioclim satellite measurements of solar irradiation at http://www.soda-is.com/eng/services/services_radiation_free_eng.php|
|36||Fung: A Hyperventilationg Biosphere (Sep. 2013)|
Fraunhofer Institut Stromproduktion : http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/downloads/pdf-files/aktuelles/stromproduktion-aus-solar-und-windenergie-2013.pdf
|38||EEA interacive map. http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/interactive/no2|
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|41||Amplitude of the atmosphere's seasonal CO2 cycle . CO2science|
|42||Fung et al. : The changing carbon cycle at Mauna Loa observatory|
|43||Zeng et al.: Agricultural green revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude (2014)|
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|45||Sceptical Science Trend Calculator : https://www.skepticalscience.com/trend.php|
|46||Kämpfe, Kowatsch: Winter 2014/15 in Deutschland: Erneut zu mikd - warum ?|
|47||NOAA Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml|
|48||Hohenpeissenberg Klimagase: http://www.dwd.de/DE/forschung/atmosphaerenbeob/zusammensetzung_atmosphaere/spurengase/inh_nav/klimagase_node.html|
|49||meteo.be: solar irradiance Uccle: http://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/fr/23023844-2015.html|
|50||Francis Massen: Ozone, change is the norm! https://meteolcd.wordpress.com/2015/10/26/the-total-ozone-column-change-is-the-norm/|
|51||El Nino's and La Nina's years and intensities: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm|
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|54||Massen, F. : First Radiation Amplification factor for 2016|
|55||Massen.F, Zimmer M.: Comparing the year 2016 Total Ozone Column measurements at Uccle and Diekirch (pdf)|
|56||MASSEN F, ZIMMER M., THOLL R., HARPES N.: Comparing the year 2017 Total Ozone Column measurements at Uccle and Diekirch (pdf)|
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|Lindzen & Choi  define the non-feedback
climate sensitivity as ΔT0 = G0*ΔF, where G0
= 0.25 Wm-2 and ΔF is the change in radiative forcing.
A change in solar irradiance of -0.82 kWh*m-2y-1 (decade 2005 to
2014) corresponds to ΔF
= - 820/8760 = -0.09 Wm-2 and should yield a cooling of ΔT0
= -0.25*0.09 = -0.02 K (or °C).per year. The meteoLCD measurements
give a cooling of 0.0057 Ky-1, about 3 times less.
Scafetta  defines a climate sensitivity in respect to changes in solar radiation by k1s = ΔT/ΔF and finds k1s = 0.053. Our data for the decade 2005 to 2014 give ΔT/ΔF= - 0.0057/(-0.09) = 0.06, a value close to that of Scafetta!.
Summary for the 2005 to 2014 decade:
|It makes for an interesting exercise to compare
the influence of mean yearly solar forcing on moist enthalpy and air
temperature for the 17 years period 2002 to 2018.
analysis of the seasonal CO2 pattern in 2014.
The mean monthly CO2 data show an oscillatory pattern which can be modeled by a 6 month period sine wave. This is not consistent with the commonly admitted explication that the summer lows and winter highs are a fingerprint of changing photosynthesis, which should lead to a single annual sinus wave (as in 2013).
The 6 month period is essentially caused by the low Jan, Feb and Dec values, and is replaced by the usual 12 period if these months are omitted.
The right figure shows the monthly mean CO2 and monthly mean wind speeds. Clearly low wind goes with high CO2, independent of the seasons (significant correlation R = -0.86 !)
The next figure gives the CO2 mixing ratios versus the monthly mean wind speed; the usual exponential model beautifully describes this pattern. The horizontal asymptote of 395.5 ppmV should correspond to the background CO2 level, as shown in .
There is some debate about the (global) changes of the seasonal CO2 amplitude, which seems to increase due to global greening , agricultural green revolution , changing air trans-continental circulation  and possibly other unknown factors. Look also at the presentation .
Locally it seems that the effects of higher/lower wind speeds and photosynthesis are difficult to untangle. If we restrict our data to those days where the mean wind speed is less than 1, the correlation between CO2 and wind speed is lower (-0.76) but still significant.
Curiously all the papers studying this seasonal amplitude problem seem to ignore the influence of changing wind speeds.
analysis for 2015
Here again higher wind speeds usually go together with lower CO2 levels (notice the exception on March!), but the monthly mean values do not follow the usual model well.
If we take all 17520 individual measurements, the picture becomes clearer, and we find that our "bumerang" model follows reasonably well the overall pattern. The horizontal asymptote suggest a background CO2 level of about 389 ppmV, which seems a bit low.
analysis for 2016 (wind speed from cup anemometer)
The high wind speeds lower the January , February (and December) values which normally should be higher; so the "usual" sinus pattern with a trough during the summer months is mostly absent.
Using all CO2 measurements of the year, we find again our boomerang pattern; the usual model has a better R2 than in 2015, but the asymptotic value of 383 is definitively too low!
versus wind speed for 2017 (wind speed by cup anemometer):
The Mauna Loa average CO2 mixing ratio for 2017 is 406.6, which would suggest that our asymptotic value of 392.3 is too low. If we use only the measurements by the new Vaisala GMP343 sensor, the asymptotic value becomes 395.7.
versus wind speed for 2018 (wind speed by cup anemometer, 17520 data
The Mauna Loa average CO2 mixing ratio for 2018 is 408.5, so our asymptotic value of 406 is quite close. The R2 of the model (the goodness of the fit) is also quite acceptable: R2 = 0.50. All parameters are significant at the 5% level (alpha = 0.95).
18 Jan 2019: Start of update to include 2018 data.
02 Feb 2019: Corrected graph of solar energy (trendline 2002-2018)