Climate Change: Science Manipulated Natural causes of global warming are much more significant than manmade changes |
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Syun Akasofu
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Fairbanks, AK
June 2009, from CCNET of Benny Peiser
1. The IPCC wants to claim that the global average temperature has unexpectedly
and abruptly increased during the 20th century after a gradual cooling from the
year 1000, and that this unexpected increase of the temperature is mostly
man-made-the greenhouse effect of CO2.
2. For their purpose, the IPCC ignored the fact that the Earth went through a
cold period called "the Little Ice Age" from 1400 to 1800.
3. The Earth has been recovering from the Little Ice Age from 1800 to the
present. A recovery from a cold period is warming. It is mostly this warming
that is causing the present climate change and it is not man-made. If they
admit the existence of the Little Ice Age, they cannot claim that the global
average temperature unexpectedly increased from 1900.
3a. In addition to the steady recovery from the Little Ice Age, there are
superposed oscillatory changes. The prominent one is called the multi-decadal
oscillation.
3b. In fact, most of the temperature change from 1800 to 2008 can be explained
by the combination of the recovery from the Little Ice Age and the multi-decadal
oscillation. If the recovery from the Little Ice Age continues, the predicted
temperature rise will be less than 1°C (2°F) by 2100, not 3~6°C.
4. Because the warming began as early as 1800, not after 1946 (when CO2 in the
atmosphere began to increase rapidly), the Little Ice Age was a sort of unwanted
and inconvenient fact for the IPCC. (In their voluminous IPCC report, the
Little Ice Age was mentioned casually only once, referring to it as "the
so-called Little Ice Age.")
5. There are a large number of observations that the Earth has been recovering
from the Little Ice Age from 1800 on, not from 1946 when CO2 is the atmosphere
began to increase rapidly. For example:
* Receding of glaciers in many part of the world
* Receding of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean
* Change in freezing/melting dates of northern rivers and lakes
6. There is no firm observational confirmation that CO2 is really responsible
for the warming during the last century. It is simply and assumption or
hypothesis that the IPCC has presented as a fact.
7. The IPCC claims that supercomputer studies confirm the hypothesis.
8. Supercomputers cannot confirm their hypothesis, since they can simply "tune"
their computer programs so as to fit the observations.
9. Although the IPCC predicted that by the year 2100 the temperature will
increase 3~6°C, the temperature has stopped increasing after 2000 and shows even
a decreasing sign.
10. Thus, their prediction failed even during the first decade of the present
century, in spite of the fact that CO2 is still increasing.
11. This means that their CO2 hypothesis and computer programs are shown to be
incorrect, proving that the program was tuned.
12. Why? Because they ignored natural causes of climate change, such as the
recovery from the Little Ice Age and the multi-decadal oscillation.
13. The stopping of the warming is caused by the fact that the multi-decadal
oscillation, another natural cause, has overtaken the recovery from the Little
Ice Age.
14. In fact, the same thing happened in 1940, and the temperature actually
decreased from 1940 to 1975, in spite of the fact that CO2 began to increase
rapidly in 1946.
15. It was said at that time that a new ice age was coming even by some of those
who now advocate the CO2 hypothesis.
16. If the IPCC could include the physical processes involved in the recovery
from the Little Ice Age and the multi-decadal oscillation, they could have
predicted the stopping of the temperature increase.
17. However, they could not program processes for the recovery from the Little
Ice Age and the multi-decadal oscillation, because the causes of the Little Ice
Age, or the recovery from it, or the multi-decadal oscillation are not known
yet. There are many unknown natural changes, including the Big Ice Ages.
18. Thus, the present state of climate change study is still insufficient to
make accurate predictions of future temperature changes. Climate change studies
should go back to basic science, avoiding interference from special interest
groups, including the mass media.
19. Unfortunately, I must conclude that the IPCC manipulated science for its own
purpose and brought the premature science of climate change to the international
political stage, causing considerable confusion and advancing the completely
unnecessary "cap and trade" argument.
20. What is happening now at many climate change conferences is simply an airing
of the struggle between the poor countries trying to seize money from the rich
countries, using the term "climate change" as an excuse.
21. We should stop convening useless international conferences by bureaucrats
and pay much more attention to environmental destructions under global
capitalism. There is no reason to alarm the general public with predictions of
catastrophic disasters caused by the CO2 effect; and the mass media should stop
reporting premature science results.
22. Basically, what is really needed are effective energy saving efforts by all
countries.
Footnote: The hockey stick figure, which played the important
role in the IPCC report of 2001, has not officially been withdrawn yet, although
it has since been found to be erroneous.