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____________________
An important message:
The 31 December 2024 meteoLCD will stop functioning
in its current configuration, after nearly 30 years
of 365/24 operation. I (Francis MASSEN) who was the
manager for this period, would like to thank my
numerous collaborators for their help and sympathy.
Two younger colleagues, Raoul THOLL and Marco
GOFFINET, both physics professors at the LCD, will
take over the managing job, after several important
changes in hardware, software, data visualization
and web presence. The present web-site will be kept
as an archive, so that all historical data, papers,
comments etc. will remain accessible.
____________________
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Local
trends 1998 to 2023
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BLOG
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Location of meteoLCD
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Lorenz et al. have published in November 2024 a
paper titled
"Increasing solar UV radiation in Dortmund, Germany:
data and trend analyses and comparison to Uccle,
Belgium". There findings are more or less
compatible which what we have published in our more
modest
trend analysis for 1998-2023. |
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The RAND Corporation published an excellent
research report titled
"Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment";
among the 6 mentioned main risks (AI,
Asteroids/Comets Impact, Climate Change, Nuclear
War, Pandemics, Super Volcanoes) climate change
is not an existential one! |
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Watching the Sun: 45 years of satellite data.
(video 32 minutes)
The relationship between TSI and Sun Spot Numbers
is since many decades the object of much research
and fierce debate. Is the recent observed global
warming at least partially caused by rising solar
TSI minima during the last solar cycles, or is the
solar TSI influence negligible concerning global
warming? Dr. Ronan Connolly discusses in easy to
understand words the different TSI reconstructions,
and their latest one published in a new
paper. |
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A great day for the German Energiewende:
the 7 November 2024 is a Dunkelflaute day,
and look at the CO2 intensity of German an French
electricity: 550 g/KWh versus 56 g/KWh.
Price of German electricity today at 17:00
: 800 Euro/MWh (average EU price is 67 Euro/MWh !) |
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The concept of reactive power and its
absolute need remains fuzzy for many not familiar
with the problems of large AC power distribution.
Read this no-frills (no mathematical)
explanation why correctly managing reactive
power is so important (this is especially true for
solar PV which lacks completely any inbuilt imertia
to compensate or help voltage stability in the net).
A more extensive article with calculations can be
found
here, and a research paper on PV-systems
inverters role
here. |
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Moritz Büsing has published a paper
"Systematic Error in Global Temperatures due to
Weather Station Ageing"
He shows that white paint aging
(and station renewal) is often not properly
considered in the homogenisation procedures and
concludes that the published temperature increase of
1.43C might only be 0.83C. |
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Ned Nikolov (Colorado State Uni.) and Karl Zeller (USDA
Forest Service) published a very interesting paper:
Roles of Earth’s Albedo Variations and
Top-of-the-Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in Recent
Warming: New Insights from Satellite and Surface
ObservationsThe conclusion is a bit
breathtaking: The Earth Energy Imbalance has been
mis-interpreted and the main cause of the warming of
the last decades can be explained by changes in
Earth's albedo!
Read
here the article by Fritz Vahrenholt (in German)
which comes roughly to the same conclusion.
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A.Manera & A.Pautz
have published (with other co-authors) a
block-buster 264 pages report titled "Technology
Monitoring of Nuclear Energy". It gives a
view on world-wide nuclear facilities and new
constructions, different nuclear technologies, SMR's,
construction licenses etc. It also includes a large
chapter on the state of the fusion technology.
This should be mandatory reading for everyone
participating in energy policies! |
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Read this paper by Jan Emblesvag "What
if Germany had invested in Nuclear Power?"
The answer is: The German climate goals would
have been reached at about half the cost of the
actual Energiewende! (which has not reached
them by far for the moment, see the ElectricityMaps
link above). The author concludes:
"there can be no doubt whatsoever
that if Germany had invested in NPPs instead of
VREs, Germany would have decarbonised more with
far less nominal expenditures"
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Prof. Richard Lindzen (MIT, retired)
gave the keynote presentation in Brussels in June
2024:
"Those who can you make believe absurdities,
can you make atrocities".
He says
"Virtue signaling elites promised to achieve net
zero emissions within a decade or 2 or 3 with no
idea of how to achieve this without destroying
their society...So here we are, confronted with
policies that destroy western economies,
impoverish the working middle class, condemn
billions of the world’s poorest to continued
poverty and increased starvation, leave our
children despairing over the alleged absence of
a future, and will enrich the enemies of the
West who are enjoying the spectacle of our
suicide march, a march that the energy sector
cowardly accepts, being too lazy to exert the
modest effort needed to check what is being
claimed"
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Read this excellent paper of Prof. Dr.-Ing Markus
Löffler from the Westfälisches Energie-Institut "
Energiewende und Versorgungssicherheit 2045 -
Dunkelflauten erfordern Handeln!"
He concludes "Aus
Sicht des Berichters macht es somit Sinn,
steuerbare Kraftwerke für einen Dauerbetrieb
zuzüglich steuerbarer Kraftwerke zum Ausgleich
von Last- und Versorgungsschwankungen zu
installieren bei gleichzeitig erheblicher
Reduzierung des weiteren Ausbaus der
Erneuerbaren-Kraftwerke...die Energiewende
gemäß derzeitigem Entwicklungsentwurf ist
unmittelbar zu beenden, neu zu konzipieren bzw.
entsprechend umzulenken."
Read also his paper
Steckbriefe_zur Energiewende with all
numerical data you need concerning the German
Energiewende.
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This is one of the best books on
climate written for the general public
(published in 2023) I know of.. Here no obscure
math, dubious statistics, politized activism but
only crystall clear explanation of observations
and theories.
Dr. Willie Soon writes on the back cover: "The
unique achievement of Dr. Vinos in this book is
his ability to tell the complex scientific
stories as simply as possible and no less."
Prof. William Happer (emeritus
Princeton University) concludes his foreword with
"There is no credible scientific support for the
claim that the current warming is, or will be,
an existential threat....This book should
stiffen the spines of brave policymakers to
stand up resist this latest extraordinary
popular delusion and madness of the crowds".
Paperback price is ca. 29€ on
Amazon.
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Scientific
Challenges of the Dectection and Attribution
of Global Warming
Watch this presentation by Dr.
Willie SOON (astrophysicist, Harvard Uni.) given
at CLINTEL in June 2024.
"The IPCC is wrong on the
temperature bias due to UHI and on the influence
of solar activity changes...The scientific
community is not yet able to establish if the
the global warming since 1850 is mostly
natural, both natural and human caused or
mostly human caused... the measurements of
Earth's Energy Budget...are highly uncertain
and mostly unresolved...""
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Net-zero will only make you poorer and China
richer
Read this article first published
in The Telegraph and relinked in Paul Homewood's
blog: "..across
Europe and North America, single-minded zealots
who were born of a world of relative calm of the
1990s continue to push for deindustrialization
and immiseration to tackle climate change –
including for the world’s emerging
economies...Rich countries need to wake up and
stop hemorrhaging trillions in self-inflicted
climate policies that will be followed by few,
laughed at by many, and will mainly make China
rich"
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Andy MAY (a petrophysicist) and Marcel
KROK (from CLINTEL) are publishing a short,
but very clear and readable article in the
"American Journal of Economics and Sociology"
titled "Carbon
dioxide and a warming climate are no problems".
This is a preprint downloaded from ResearchGate.
Their conclusion:
"...are
we comparing current climate change to some
fantasy world where climate never changes?...What
we do not know is how much of climate change is
human-caused and how much is natural. No drastic
changes to our economy are justified until we
can figure this out"
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Sweden has stopped the "HANSA
POWER BRIDGE" plan to lay a high power DC
connection between Sweden and Germany. The CICERO
magazine has a very clear article by Puntus Nyman
titled "Wir Schweden wollen nicht mehr für
Deutschlands falsche Energiepolitik bezahlen"
(link).
He writes "...fürchte
ich leider, dass die deutsche Industrie in
andere Länder und Kontinente abwandern wird, die
eine vernünftigere Energie-, Klima- und
Wirtschaftspolitik verfolgen".
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Watch this interview
(40 minutes, English spoken) titled "Global
Warming Myths Debunked" with US geologist
Gregory Wrightstone, a former IPCC
contributor, on the Dutch blkbxtv
channel.
He especially notes that in human
history, warmer climates always were periods of
well-being and civilization progress, whereas the
colder ones saw hunger periods, political unrest
and fast civilization collapse.
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Read this paper by retired Dutch
professors Kees de Lange (Uni Amsterdam) and Guus
Berkout (TU Delft):
We can still avoid the Net Zero trap :
"The important conclusion from theory and
measurements is that there is no man-made
climate-crisis"
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For a change: here a funny,
humoristic contribution by statistician
William Briggs (PhD, Cornell University):
How
to setup as a Global Warming, now called
"Climate Change" Researcher
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Read this damning paper in Nature by
Roger PIELKE Jr: "Scientific
Integrity and U.S. "Billion Dollar Disasters":
"For more than two decades, the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
has published a count of weather-related
disasters in the United States that it estimates
have exceeded one billion dollars...NOAA
incorrectly claims that for some types of
extreme weather, the dataset demonstrates
detection and attribution of changes on climate
timescales. Similarly flawed are NOAA’s claims
that increasing annual counts of billion dollar
disasters are in part a consequence of human
caused climate change"
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Ulf Büntgen has a very interesting
comment in Nature "The importance of
distinguishing climate science from climate
activism". He writes:
"Without self-critique and a diversity of
viewpoints, scientists will ultimately harm the
credibility of their research...I
suggest that an ever-growing commingling of
climate science, climate activism, climate
communication and climate policy, whereby
scientific insights are adopted to promote
pre-determined positions, not only creates
confusion among politicians, stakeholders and
the wider public, but also diminishes academic
credibility
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Prof. Richard LINDZEN
Prof. William HAPPER
Prof. Steven KOONIN
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Expert opinion (27 pages) submitted to
the Court of Appeals in The Hague in the case
"Shell vs. Milieudefensie et al."
"In our opinion, the District
Court of The Hague findings that “dangerous”
climate change and extreme weather are caused by
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are contradicted
by the scientific method and only supported by
the unscientific methods of government opinions,
consensus, peer review, and cherry-picked or
falsified data...There will be disastrous
consequences for the poor, people worldwide,
future generations and the West if fossil fuels
and CO2 emissions were reduced to “net zero,”
including mass starvation and loss of reliable
and inexpensive energy. "
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NET ZERO...
a Damaging and
Totally Unnessary Goal
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Read this
interesting blog of Dr. Roy Spencer,
who shows that decreasing anthropogenic CO2
emissions by only 1% per year will be enough to
bring atmospheric CO2 levels to fall!
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Watch this short 5:30
video from Prof. Steve Koonin (former
science advisor of the Obama administration) on
Climate Emergency, Models and more...:
Is there really a climate emergency?
Very clear and sober!
You may also watch "Confessions
of an Environmentalist"
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Watch "Climate
the Movie" by Martin Durkin which
stirred up much comments; the interviews are with
top world scientists, which are "climate-realists"
and are critical thinkers, not blindly following
the zeitgeist. You may disagree with one or
another item, but this movie gives a much needed
view into the nefarious politization of
climatology and puts some simple facts into
perspective. The movie has a length of 80 minutes.
A version with German subtitles is here.
A comment and short abstract is
here.
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Vollmer & Eberhardt published in the European
Journal of Physics a paper
"A simple model for the prediction of CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere depending on
global CO2 emissions".
They base their simple differential
equation on the fact that the absorption of
CO2 in the oceans and on land represent a
constant percentage of the emissions,
a fact verified by observational data since 1960
(and partially ignored by the IPCC climate models
and predictions).
They conclude: "...we may-after
a transition period of around 100 years-still
afford emissions of 20 Gt of carbon
annually...We find, that after a transition
period of around 100 to 150 years, depending on
the used emissions scenario, new equilibrium
atmospheric CO2 concentrations below current
levels of 420 ppm seem possible for reduced but
constant emissions of 50% of todays values".
Click here
for their Figure 5 (annotated) which shows the
huge differences between their model predictions
and those of the IPCC.
Is this a new nail into the coffin of Net Zero?
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Dr. Ralph Alexandre has written a very interesting
paper on extreme weather events:
"Weather Extremes in the Historical Context".
Contrary to the constant media scare and activist
climatologists, these more recent extreme events
have not increased, and often pale compared to
historic ones.
The lower graph shows the number of
yearly warm-spell days in the US from 1901 to
2018: no increase over this whole period!
R. Alexander concludes: "This
misconception has been further amplified by
attribution studies that claim to be able to
assign specific extremes to either natural
variability or human causes. However, such
studies, while currently fashionable, use highly
questionable methodology that has several
shortcomings."
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Prospects
of Nuclear Fusion.
This is an interesting video with 3 specialists,
whose conclusions mostly seems those of John
Carr, the first presenter: Fusion is
difficult, costly and in a more short time-frame
can not be the solution to our carbon-free power
needs. Watch John Carr who very clearly
presents the pro and contras of fusion w.r. to
fission; this is by far the most clear exposé I
know of fusion reactor problems that are not often
discussed in the media. The conclusion is that
research into fusion should continue, at about 1/4
of the full financing for nuclear power, the rest
going into fission research.
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The Open Access Journal "Science of Climate
Change" has a very interesting paper by Hans
Schröder (Denmark) titled
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle".
The author finds a fundamental
fault in the IPCC model of the carbon cycle;
with his model he calculates that the human
caused part in the increase of atmospheric
CO2 levels represent only about 25% of the
measured change, the rest of the increase having
natural causes.
Website of SCC is here
(click on the 3-bars at the top right of the page
to access the menu).
You may also read this very clear
essay by Eike Roth:
"Climate: Man or Nature?"
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Dr. Stefan Kröpelin, a German geologue and
specialist of the Sahara desert region, gives an
interesting
interview (in German)where he puts
many fashionable myths right: the Sahara desert is
shrinking (not increasing!), there are no climate
tipping points and the refugies coming to Europe
are not driven out by climate change.
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Dr. Roy Spencer (Uni. UAH) has a very
readable article on the difference between climate
models and observations, titled:
Global Warming. Observations vs. Climate
Models
One of his conclusions:
Public policy should be based on climate
observations - which are rather unremarkable-
rather than climate models which exaggerate
climate impacts.
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Impacts and risks of “realistic” global
warming projections for the 21st century
New paper by Nicola Scafetta (University of Napoli
Fedrerico II) on realistic estimation of future
warming, knowing that IPCC's projection mostly run
hot.
One of the conclusions:
Net-zero emission policies are not necessary
because SSP2-4.5 is sufficient to limit climate
change hazards to manageable levels.
Read also his
comment on Climate etc.
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Roger PIELKE Jr. ("The Honest
Broker THB") has a marvelous comment on the
weather and climate extremes during the post 1850
period that the IPCC and politically correct
climate Zeitgeist considers as ideal. One big
El-Nino event during the 1877's has caused about
50 millions deaths!
Please read this excellent comment
"When the climate was perfect" ( and
you might join the THB list)
He concludes: A careful look at history
tells us that the global average surface
temperature is not a control knob that we can
set to a preferred value to "avoid suffering"
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To start this year2024, I suggest to read the
very interesting paper by Connolly, Soon et
al. concerning the influence of
TSI (total solar irradiance) on global
temperature increase since 1850. The IPCC
practically neglects TSI influence, and reaffirms
that the observed warming is mostly anthropogenic.
Here the authors show that choosing different TSI
reconstructions or observations, you can conclude
to the contrary (warming is mostly natural) or
everything in-between: "for 4 of the Surface
Temperature estimates the best performing TSI
series in the "only natural forcings" fit can
nominally explain more of the long term warming
tha the "only anthropogenic forcings""
So the politically correct quasi exclusive
fixation on human emitted GHG (mostly CO2) might
be wrong.
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Multi-part comment in the BLOG on the problem of air
quality and the different and often confusing
multitude of defining the air quality index.
Read here parts
1,
2,
3,
4 and the
last part 5.
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Excellent and very short
video from Prager online University with
Prof. Richard Lindzen from MIT who tells the
essentials in crystal clear words .
An absolute ***must
view***!
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1.
A look at the Shape of Temperature Change over Time.
Interesting blog comment at WUWT by Mark Fife concluding
"In every 10-year average, 99.7% of the
stations fall within 2.25° and -1.75° of their 1920 –
2011 average".
10. A real cool 12 minute video by Dr. David Evans "Climate
change in 12 minutes". Peek also into this
animated
video by Dr. Roy Spencer.
Bill Gates, who said poor countries
“desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel
economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They
can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions and
we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to get
cheaper.” - See more at:
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
Bill Gates, who said poor countries
“desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel
economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They
can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions and
we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to get
cheaper.” - See more at:
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
The free iPhone
applet
meteoLCD has been discontinued!
(by former LCD student Benoìt
Frisch, also available for Android devices))
96.
James Lovelock: "They all talk, they pass
laws, they do things, as if they knew what was
happening. I don’t think anybody really knows
what’s happening. They just guess. And a whole
group of them meet together and encourage each
other’s guesses." (link)
97.
Words of the great physicist Freeman
Dyson: "Unfortunately
the global warming hysteria, as I see it, is
driven by politics more than by science. If
it happens that I am wrong and the climate
experts are right, it is still true that the
remedies are far worse than the disease that
they claim to cure."
98. Words
by the great French philosopher Pascal Bruckner:
"All the foolishness of
Bolshevism, Maoism, and Trotskyism are
somehow reformulated exponentially in the
name of saving the planet." (comments
here
and
here)
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99. R. Lindzen: "Future generations will
wonder in bemused amazement that the early
21st century's developed world went into
hysterical panic over a globally averaged
temperature increase of a few tenths of a
degree and, on the basis of gross
exaggerations of highly uncertain computer
projections combined into implausible chains
of inference, proceeded to contemplate a
roll-back of the industrial age"
"Le
doute est le commen-cement de la science ;
qui ne doute de rien n'examine rien ; qui
n'examine rien ne découvre rien ; qui ne
découvre rien est aveugle et demeure
aveugle".
Jean Chardin, 1686.
Journal du voyage du chevalier
Chardin en Perse.
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Some say the world will end in
fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Fire and Ice, R. Frost, 1920
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"The greatest challenge facing
mankind is the challenge of distinguishing
reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda."
Michael Crichton + 4Nov08
(best
speeches
here and
here)
Josh cartoons
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"Und denn, man muß
das Wahre immer wiederholen, weil auch der
Irrtum um uns her immer wieder gepredigt
wird, und zwar nicht von einzelnen, sondern
von der Masse. In Zeitungen und
Enzyklopädien, auf Schulen und
Universitäten, überall ist der Irrtum oben
auf, und es ist ihm wohl und behaglich, im
Gefühl der Majorität, die auf seiner Seite
ist". Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1828. |
A complete
list (with links!) of all things caused by
global warming! (video)
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