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Meteorological Station
of the Lycée Classique de Diekirch [Luxembourg]  
 The
http://meteo.lcd.lu          blog:  meteolcd.wordpress.com
Luxembourg's contributor to the WOUDC 

***live  CO2 emissions from electricty production***
 

 


Local trends 1998 to 2019
 

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COVID-19: The evolution in Luxembourg
(Day 0 = 29-Feb-20)
As we are nearing hopefully the end of new infections & new deaths, these graphs will be updated only every second day (uneven day in May), together with the animations!

25-May-20, evening:
Totals are for 86 days.  the Gompertz fit (green curve) has an asymptote that is statistically significant. The end of new infections will probably be around the 20th May.

Note that the maximum number of deaths will be reached possibly only a few days later than that of the total infected, possibly around the 1th June.

The uncertainty range for the expected maximum death number is  narrowing fast; compare with the situation of the 17th April (below).

 Look here for an animated GIF's (update every 2nd day):
 

Total infected
starting 24th Mar
(Gompertz fit significant)

Death number
starting 5th Apr
(Gompertz fit significant)


At day 84 (23-May-20) there is a visible mismatch between the Gompertz curve and the observed Totals!

 

 

 

 

The number of death's does not follow the Gompertz very nicely, even if R2>0.99, as shown by the plot at the left.
One reason is that the reported number of deaths varies strongly per day...

 

 

All  Luxbg. Covid-19 numbers also on Wikipedia.

More on the blog!

Luxembourg people who have been tested for COVID-19 are asked to voluntary participate in the making of a Luxembourg Covid-19 map...look here:
https://corona.tux.lu

Click here for the map!
 

Excellent article by P. Lemoine: Complicated mathematical models are no substitute for common sense

 

 

 

 

Italy: COVID_19 and the Gompertz curve (Day 0 = 25-Feb-20)
The updates will be done for Italy only all 10 days approx. (sorry, I am too busy...)!

The Gompertz curve is a very good fit for an ongoing pandemic (see Willis Eschenbach's post on South Korea data here and also follow the comments). I made a quick check for the expected death toll and total number of infected people for Italy, where the former is the most important parameter. I fitted the Gompertz curve parameters to the Italian data published here. The death toll peaks at about 12000, to be compared to the approx. 17000 per year due to common influenza (link). The x-axis represents the days, with day 0 being the 25th February 2020.
I will update this curve if more data become available.
Watch also this very interesting simulation in the Washington Post, which shows the effect of "social distancing".

 

23-May: (88 days, UPDATE!)

The next 2 plots show the situation the near perfect fit with the Gompertz function. The expected plateau will be reached after day 100, i.e. practically at mid-June 2020 ! So this will happen about 1 month later than in Luxembourg.

The plateau for the death number is expected for a couple of weeks later (possibly end  of June).

Note that the uncertainty ranges both for totals and death number has become very narrow. So when things continue as predicted, sanitary and political decisions for the near future are easy to make.

 

 

 

 

   

 Cooling
ICE SAINTS

Eisheilige_5

 




The Frost Saints or Ice Saints days ("Eisheiligentage") are cooling since 1998 at meteoLCD, and still longer in Germany. Did you hear about that in the media? More on the blog.

 

Research done at a geothermal power station in Iceland has shown that gazeous CO2 dissolved in water which is injected into underground basalt rocks mineralizes in just 2 years, and such will be safely stored away indefinitely without any risk of leakage as they may exist in traditional CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) systems..

Read here.


The ongoing solar minimum continues to increase the cosmic radiation at the altitudes of transatlantic flights (20000 - 40000 feet). The hourly dose may reach about 3800nSv, to be compared to the 80nSv common at ground level (look at our radioactive measurements!)

More here!

   

Read this interesting article on HALEU (high-assay, low enriched) nuclear fuel from disused ERBII reactor and its planned use in the Oklo Aurora micro-reactor at INL (Idaho National Laboratory). HALEU is seen by many as the fuel for small reactors and as a tool to recup energy from spent nuclear fuel.

The Oklo Aurora reactor is a reactor running on metallic fuel, without any liquid circuits.


The German philosoph Gunnar KAISER asks 12 very logical, but easy to understand questions regarding climate and its variation; he asks these questions to the famous TV physics professor Harald Lesch. Watch the YouTube video (German spoken, about 17 minutes) and just try to follow the logic!

h.t. Die Kalte Sonne


Look at these graphs which show a similar 60-year sinus-pattern for the velocity of warming and the change in ocean heat content. Note also that the velocity of warming seems to be uncorrelated to the yearly CO2 emissions (here gigaton C/year, right axis, red plot).

More here!


Clive BEST has a good article on the baseline problem of temperature series, and why the choice of the baseline period is influencing the concordance (or discordance) between models and observational data: "It is the model projections which change dramatically when using different baselines. One should always bear this in mind whenever  an ensemble of models seem to perfectly  match the data well."
 


Why Greta Thunberg should go back to school

Read this essay by Alessandro van den Berg, an economics teacher from the Netherlands and also a person with autism. (7 Jan 2020).
 
 
Multi-part comment in the BLOG on the problem of air quality and the different and often confusing multitude of defining the air quality index.

Read here parts 1, 2, 3, 4 and the last part 5.
 


Excellent and very short video from Prager online University with Prof. Richard Lindzen from MIT who tells the essentials in crystal clear words .

An absolute ***must view***!

   

 

1. A look at the Shape of Temperature Change over Time. Interesting blog comment at WUWT by Mark Fife concluding "In every 10-year average, 99.7% of the stations fall within 2.25° and -1.75° of their 1920 – 2011 average".

10. A real cool 12 minute video by Dr. David Evans "Climate change in 12 minutes". Peek also into this animated video by Dr. Roy Spencer.

 

Bill Gates, who said poor countries “desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions and we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to get cheaper.” - See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
Bill Gates, who said poor countries “desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions and we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to get cheaper.” - See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf



Free iPhone applet meteoLCD
(by former LCD student Benoìt Frisch, also available for Android devices))

96.
James Lovelock: "They all talk, they pass laws, they do things, as if they knew what was happening. I don’t think anybody really knows what’s happening. They just guess. And a whole group of them meet together and encourage each other’s guesses." (link)

97. Words of the great physicist Freeman Dyson: "Unfortunately the global warming hysteria, as I see it, is driven by politics more than by science. If it happens that I am wrong and the climate experts are right, it is still true that the remedies are far worse than the disease that they claim to cure."

98. Words by the great French philosopher Pascal Bruckner: "All the foolishness of Bolshevism, Maoism, and Trotskyism are somehow reformulated exponentially in the name of saving the planet.
" (comments here and here)
_______________

99. R. Lindzen: "Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century's developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age"


 "Le doute est le commen-cement de la science ; qui ne doute de rien n'examine rien ; qui n'examine rien ne découvre rien ; qui ne découvre rien est aveugle et demeure aveugle".
Jean Chardin, 1686. Journal du voyage du chevalier Chardin en Perse.

 

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Fire and Ice, R. Frost, 1920

"The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda."
Michael Crichton + 4Nov08
(best speeches here and here)
Josh cartoons

"Und denn, man muß das Wahre immer wiederholen, weil auch der Irrtum um uns her immer wieder gepredigt wird, und zwar nicht von einzelnen, sondern von der Masse. In Zeitungen und Enzyklopädien, auf Schulen und Universitäten, überall ist der Irrtum oben auf, und es ist ihm wohl und behaglich, im Gefühl der Majorität, die auf seiner Seite ist". Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1828.

A complete list (with links!) of all things caused by global warming! (video)

 

R

 

 


Thank you for your visit! meteoLCD started the 1st March 96.
Blog at meteolcd.wordpress.com
 

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MeteoLCD specializes in UV radiation and Ozone related problems. It is the only UV measuring station and the only source of near-live UVB, UVA, CO2 and other data of Luxembourg.

LIVE weather & UV-Index

near-live graphs  of  O3, UVB, UVI, UVA, NO/NO2, CO2, Air Temperature, Solar irradiance, Heatstress, Windchill ... 
updated every 30 minutes, 24h/24h

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measurements of total ozone column

NEWS


latest news

DATA archive

download page for all data files

PAPERS, REPORTS & COMMENTS

papers and reports by meteoLCD staff
The Global Warming Sceptic page is here!

  • Health campaign 2007 of the Ministry of Health

  • UV-Gesundheitsinfo

  • check maximum exposure time

EQUIPMENT

everything about the overall structure of meteoLCD, sensors and manufacturers

LINKS

links to other sites of interest


Cours de Formation pour Exploitants de Solariums- Lehrgang für Solarienbetreiber (2008)


The data of MeteoLCD are used to compute the UV-Index published by several Luxembourg periodicals. A research project done in collaboration with the Radiation Protection Office of Luxembourg studies the general UV pattern and the relationship between UVB irradiance and tropospheric ozone concentrations. 


Head of the station:

Prof. Francis MASSEN, Physics Laboratory, retired
Lycée Classique de Diekirch
L-9233 DIEKIRCH ( francis.massen@education.lu)
biography

Collaborators of the Lycée classique de Diekirch Prof. Mike ZIMMER
Prof
. Raoul THOLL

Collaborator of the Radiation Protection Office:

Dipl. Phys./ Ing. Nucl. Nico HARPES ...tel: (352) 247-85673 

  Benoît Frisch (IOS and Android meteoLCD apps)