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1998 to 2023
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Vollmer & Eberhardt published in the European
Journal of Physics a paper
"A simple model for the prediction of CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere depending on global
CO2 emissions".
They base their simple differential
equation on the fact that the absorption of CO2
in the oceans and on land represent a constant
percentage of the emissions, a fact verified
by observational data since 1960 (and partially
ignored by the IPCC climate models and predictions).
They conclude: "...we may-after a
transition period of around 100 years-still afford
emissions of 20 Gt of carbon annually...We find,
that after a transition period of around 100 to 150
years, depending on the used emissions scenario, new
equilibrium atmospheric CO2 concentrations below
current levels of 420 ppm seem possible for reduced
but constant emissions of 50% of todays values".
Click
here
for their Figure 5 (annotated) which shows the huge
differences between their model predictions and
those of the IPCC.
Is this a new nail into the coffin of Net Zero? |
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Dr. Ralph Alexandre has written a very interesting
paper on extreme weather events:
"Weather Extremes in the Historical Context".
Contrary to the constant media scare and activist
climatologists, these more recent extreme events
have not increased, and often pale compared to
historic ones.
The lower graph shows the number of
yearly warm-spell days in the US from 1901 to 2018:
no increase over this whole period!
R. Alexander concludes: "This
misconception has been further amplified by
attribution studies that claim to be able to assign
specific extremes to either natural variability or
human causes. However, such studies, while currently
fashionable, use highly questionable methodology
that has several shortcomings." |
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Prospects
of Nuclear Fusion.
This is an interesting video with 3 specialists,
whose conclusions mostly seems those of John Carr,
the first presenter: Fusion is difficult, costly
and in a more short time-frame can not be the
solution to our carbon-free power needs. Watch
John Carr who very clearly presents the pro and
contras of fusion w.r. to fission; this is by far
the most clear exposé I know of fusion reactor
problems that are not often discussed in the media.
The conclusion is that research into fusion should
continue, at about 1/4 of the full financing for
nuclear power, the rest going into fission research.
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The Open Access Journal "Science of Climate Change"
has a very interesting paper by Hans Schröder
(Denmark) titled
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle".
The author finds a fundamental
fault in the IPCC model of the carbon cycle; with
his model he calculates that the human caused part
in the increase of atmospheric CO2 levels
represent only about 25% of the measured change, the
rest of the increase having natural causes.
Website of SCC is
here
(click on the 3-bars at the top right of the page to
access the menu).
You may also read this very clear
essay by Eike Roth:
"Climate: Man or Nature?" |
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Dr. Stefan Kröpelin, a German geologue and
specialist of the Sahara desert region, gives an
interesting
interview (in German)where he puts many
fashionable myths right: the Sahara desert is
shrinking (not increasing!), there are no climate
tipping points and the refugies coming to Europe are
not driven out by climate change.
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Dr. Roy Spencer (Uni. UAH) has a very
readable article on the difference between climate
models and observations, titled:
Global Warming. Observations vs. Climate Models
One of his conclusions:
Public policy should be based on climate
observations - which are rather unremarkable- rather
than climate models which exaggerate climate
impacts.
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Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming
projections for the 21st century
New paper by Nicola Scafetta (University of Napoli
Fedrerico II) on realistic estimation of future
warming, knowing that IPCC's projection mostly run
hot.
One of the conclusions:
Net-zero emission policies are not necessary because
SSP2-4.5 is sufficient to limit climate change
hazards to manageable levels.
Read also his
comment on Climate etc. |
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Roger PIELKE Jr. ("The Honest Broker
THB") has a marvelous comment on the weather and
climate extremes during the post 1850 period that
the IPCC and politically correct climate Zeitgeist
considers as ideal. One big El-Nino event during the
1877's has caused about 50 millions deaths!
Please read this excellent comment
"When the climate was perfect" ( and you
might join the THB list)
He concludes: A careful look at history
tells us that the global average surface temperature
is not a control knob that we can set to a preferred
value to "avoid suffering"
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To conclude this year. I suggest to read the
very interesting paper by Connolly, Soon et al.
concerning the influence of TSI (total solar
irradiance) on global temperature increase since
1850. The IPCC practically neglects TSI
influence, and reaffirms that the observed warming
is mostly anthropogenic. Here the authors show that
choosing different TSI reconstructions or
observations, you can conclude to the contrary
(warming is mostly natural) or everything
in-between: "for 4 of the Surface Temperature
estimates the best performing TSI series in the
"only natural forcings" fit can nominally explain
more of the long term warming tha the "only
anthropogenic forcings""
So the politically correct quasi exclusive
fixation on human emitted GHG (mostly CO2) might be
wrong.
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Multi-part comment in the BLOG on the problem of air
quality and the different and often confusing
multitude of defining the air quality index.
Read here parts
1,
2,
3,
4 and the
last part 5.
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Excellent and very short
video
from Prager online University with Prof. Richard
Lindzen from MIT who tells the essentials in crystal
clear words .
An absolute ***must
view***!
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1.
A look at the Shape of Temperature Change over Time.
Interesting blog comment at WUWT by Mark Fife concluding "In every 10-year average, 99.7% of the
stations fall within 2.25° and -1.75° of their 1920 – 2011
average".
10. A real cool 12 minute video by Dr. David Evans "Climate
change in 12 minutes". Peek also into this animated
video by Dr. Roy Spencer.
Bill Gates, who said poor countries
“desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel
economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They
can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions
and we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to
get cheaper.” - See more at:
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
Bill Gates, who said poor countries
“desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel
economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They
can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions
and we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to
get cheaper.” - See more at:
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
The free
iPhone
applet
meteoLCD has been discontinued!
(by former LCD student
Benoìt Frisch, also
available for Android devices))
96.
James Lovelock: "They all talk, they pass laws, they
do things, as if they knew what was happening. I don’t think
anybody really knows what’s happening. They just guess. And
a whole group of them meet together and encourage each
other’s guesses." (link)
97.
Words
of the great physicist Freeman Dyson:
"Unfortunately the global
warming hysteria, as I see it, is driven by politics
more than by science. If it happens that I am wrong and
the climate experts are right, it is still true that the
remedies are far worse than the disease that they claim
to cure."
98. Words by
the great French philosopher Pascal Bruckner:
"All the foolishness of
Bolshevism, Maoism, and Trotskyism are somehow
reformulated exponentially in the name of saving the
planet." (comments
here
and
here)
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99. R. Lindzen: "Future generations will wonder in
bemused amazement that the early 21st century's
developed world went into hysterical panic over a
globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths
of a degree and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of
highly uncertain computer projections combined into
implausible chains of inference, proceeded to
contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age"
"Le
doute est le commen-cement de la science ; qui
ne doute de rien n'examine rien ; qui n'examine
rien ne découvre rien ; qui ne découvre rien est
aveugle et demeure aveugle".
Jean Chardin, 1686.
Journal du voyage du chevalier
Chardin en Perse.
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Some say the world will end in
fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Fire and Ice, R. Frost, 1920
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"The greatest challenge facing
mankind is the challenge of distinguishing
reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda."
Michael Crichton + 4Nov08
(best speeches
here
and
here)
Josh cartoons
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"Und denn, man muß
das Wahre immer wiederholen, weil auch der
Irrtum um uns her immer wieder gepredigt wird,
und zwar nicht von einzelnen, sondern von der
Masse. In Zeitungen und Enzyklopädien, auf
Schulen und Universitäten, überall ist der
Irrtum oben auf, und es ist ihm wohl und
behaglich, im Gefühl der Majorität, die auf
seiner Seite ist". Johann Wolfgang von
Goethe, 1828. |
A complete
list
(with links!) of all things caused by global
warming! (video)
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