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Local trends
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Italy: COVID_19 and the Gompertz curve
(Day 0 = 25-Feb-20)
The Gompertz curve is a very good
fit for an ongoing pandemic (see Willis Eschenbach's
post on South Korea data
here and also follow the comments). I made a
quick check for the expected death toll and total
number of infected people for Italy, where the
former is the most important parameter. I fitted the
Gompertz curve parameters to the Italian data
published
here. The death toll peaks at about 12000,
to be compared to the approx. 17000 per year due to
common influenza (link).
The x-axis represents the days, with day 0 being
the 25th February 2020.
I will update this curve if more data become
available.Watch also this very
interesting
simulation in the Washington Post, which
shows the effect of "social distancing".
The next 2 plots
show the situation the 2nd April and the perfect fit with the Gompertz
function. The expected plateau will be reached near
day 100, i.e. practically only at start of June 2020
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The evolution in Luxembourg (Day
0 = 29-Feb-20)
We now (05-Apr-20, afternoon) know the totals for
35 days.
the Gompertz fit (green
curve) has an asymptote that is statistically
significant. The plot shows
the uncertainty interval practically
centering the asymptote; the uncertainty range is
now 3299 ... 3701 (it will be visually
updated every second day). The range is
slightly shifted up. The end of new infections will
probably be at the start of the month of May.
Today is the first day to do a meaningful
fit on the number of deaths: the parameter a
of the Gompertz fit (Death=a*exp(-b*exp(-c*Day)) and
the lo-hi interval are know statistically
significant.
The very broad uncertainty range will narrow during
the next days (or weeks).
More on the
blog!
Luxembourg people who have been tested for COVID-19
are asked to voluntary participate in the making of
a Luxembourg Covid-19 map...look here:
https://corona.tux.lu
Click here for the map!
Excellent article by P. Lemoine:
Complicated mathematical models are no substitute
for common sense
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Research done at a geothermal
power station in Iceland has shown that gazeous CO2
dissolved in water which is injected into
underground basalt rocks mineralizes in just 2
years, and such will be safely stored away
indefinitely without any risk of leakage as they may
exist in traditional CCS (Carbon Capture and
Storage) systems..
Read
here. |
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The ongoing solar minimum continues to increase
the cosmic radiation at the altitudes of
transatlantic flights (20000 - 40000 feet). The
hourly dose may reach about 3800nSv, to be compared
to the 80nSv common at ground level (look
at our radioactive measurements!)
More
here! |
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Read this
interesting article on HALEU (high-assay,
low enriched) nuclear fuel from disused ERBII
reactor and its planned use in the Oklo Aurora
micro-reactor at INL (Idaho National Laboratory).
HALEU is seen by many as the fuel for small reactors
and as a tool to recup energy from spent nuclear
fuel.
The Oklo Aurora reactor is a reactor
running on metallic fuel, without any liquid
circuits. |
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The German philosoph
Gunnar KAISER
asks 12 very logical, but easy to understand
questions regarding climate and its variation; he
asks these questions to the famous TV physics
professor Harald Lesch. Watch the
YouTube video
(German spoken, about 17 minutes) and just try to
follow the logic!
h.t.
Die Kalte Sonne |
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Look at these graphs which show a similar 60-year
sinus-pattern for the velocity of warming and the
change in ocean heat content. Note also that the
velocity of warming seems to be uncorrelated to the
yearly CO2 emissions (here gigaton C/year, right
axis, red plot).
More
here! |
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Clive BEST has a good article on the
baseline
problem of temperature series, and why the
choice of the baseline period is influencing the
concordance (or discordance) between models and
observational data:
"It
is the model projections which change dramatically
when using different baselines. One should always
bear this in mind whenever an ensemble of models
seem to perfectly match the data well."
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Why Greta Thunberg should go back to school |
Read this essay by Alessandro van den Berg, an
economics teacher from the Netherlands and also a
person with autism. (7 Jan 2020). |
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Multi-part comment in the BLOG on the problem of air
quality and the different and often confusing
multitude of defining the air quality index.
Read here parts
1,
2,
3,
4 and the
last part 5.
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Excellent and very short video
from Prager online University with Prof. Richard
Lindzen from MIT who tells the essentials in
crystal clear words .
An absolute ***must
view***!
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1.
A look at the Shape of Temperature Change over Time.
Interesting blog comment at WUWT by Mark Fife concluding
"In every 10-year average, 99.7% of the
stations fall within 2.25° and -1.75° of their 1920 –
2011 average".
10. A real cool 12 minute video by Dr. David Evans "Climate
change in 12 minutes". Peek also into this
animated
video by Dr. Roy Spencer.
Bill Gates, who said poor countries
“desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel
economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They
can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions and
we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to get
cheaper.” - See more at:
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
Bill Gates, who said poor countries
“desperately need cheap sources of energy now to fuel
economic growth that lifts families out of poverty. They
can’t afford today’s expensive clean energy solutions and
we can’t expect them to wait for the technology to get
cheaper.” - See more at:
http://www.thegwpf.com/new-climate-change-battlefront-pits-tony-abbott-against-the-anti-coal-brigade/#sthash.J5szcsdQ.dpuf
Free
iPhone applet
meteoLCD
(by former LCD student
Benoìt Frisch, also
available for Android devices))
96.
James
Lovelock: "They all talk, they pass laws,
they do things, as if they knew what was
happening. I don’t think anybody really knows
what’s happening. They just guess. And a whole
group of them meet together and encourage each
other’s guesses." (link)
97. Words
of the great physicist Freeman Dyson:
"Unfortunately the global
warming hysteria, as I see it, is driven by
politics more than by science. If it happens
that I am wrong and the climate experts are
right, it is still true that the remedies
are far worse than the disease that they
claim to cure."
98. Words
by the great French philosopher Pascal Bruckner:
"All the foolishness of
Bolshevism, Maoism, and Trotskyism are
somehow reformulated exponentially in the
name of saving the planet." (comments
here
and
here)
_______________
99.
R. Lindzen: "Future generations will wonder
in bemused amazement that the early 21st
century's developed world went into hysterical
panic over a globally averaged temperature
increase of a few tenths of a degree and, on
the basis of gross exaggerations of highly
uncertain computer projections combined into
implausible chains of inference, proceeded to
contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age"
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"Le
doute est le commen-cement de la science ;
qui ne doute de rien n'examine rien ; qui
n'examine rien ne découvre rien ; qui ne
découvre rien est aveugle et demeure
aveugle".
Jean Chardin, 1686.
Journal du voyage du chevalier
Chardin en Perse.
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Some say the world will end in
fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Fire and Ice, R. Frost, 1920
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"The greatest challenge facing
mankind is the challenge of distinguishing
reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda."
Michael Crichton + 4Nov08
(best speeches here
and here)
 Josh cartoons
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| "Und denn, man muß
das Wahre immer wiederholen, weil auch der
Irrtum um uns her immer wieder gepredigt
wird, und zwar nicht von einzelnen, sondern
von der Masse. In Zeitungen und
Enzyklopädien, auf Schulen und
Universitäten, überall ist der Irrtum oben
auf, und es ist ihm wohl und behaglich, im
Gefühl der Majorität, die auf seiner Seite
ist". Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1828. |
A complete
list
(with links!) of all things caused by global
warming! (video)
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Réseau
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