The Global Warming Sceptic  (2020-202x)
http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/index.html
version 2.2  14 Feb 2009

STATEMENT:
This page does not represent an official position of the Lycée Classique de Diekirch or the Ministry of Education on climate change and global warming. The official position of the Ministry of Environment of Luxembourg can be found here. If you do not want to read the following links and discussions, please go back!

Please take a step back, and stay cool for a moment. Shut your ears off from the deafening cries and shouts of the global warming advocates, and sharpen your mind. Try to answer the questions outlined in the papers given hereafter, and be open for good reasoning: these pages might make you think again, and wonder, if the mobiles of all these climate catastrophers are pure .... 

Working for clean air and an unpolluted atmosphere is a laudable aim, but forgetting to compare the magnitude of man-made pollutants to the natural sources, or having an absolute faith in measurement data of often dubious origin, is unscientific at least, and foolish certainly. The climate  is "the changing state of the atmosphere", so do not expect a steady state situation. Do not forget either that the sun is the engine which drives everything, and that the output of that engine is in constant change!

The newest additions to this link list are on top!    

Huge Reference of papers and articles on climate change and related problems!  Links to web sites, books and videos not embracing the IPCC consensus

                                                                                          

Previous pages: up to 2008    
2009 - 2010  2011 - 2012           
2013 - 2014  2015_2016

2017_2019
 

Climategate

"Quotes"  Hockey-Stick discussions

last update: 04 Jan 2021

   
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases,

W.A.Wijngaarden (York Uni., Canada) and W. Happer (Princeton Uni.,USA) have published a remarkable paper on the influence of doubling the actual concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG). The paper is very math-heavy and not easy to read, but 2 conclusions are important:

1. at current concentrations the forcings from all GHG are saturated, so...
2. doubling the concentrations of 5 GHG increases the forcings only by a few percent in the cloud-free atmosphere

Link is to the preprint.

James Randi James Randi, the master of the skeptical scientists and magician extraordinaire passed away 92 years old. Read the New York times obituary of this outstanding debunker of scientific and paranormal fraud, and read here what he had to say on climate change.

Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period

 

A new paper by Margaritelli et al. published in Nature - Science Reports (link) shows that the Mediterranean surface water temperature were during the Roman Warm Period about 2°C warmer than today! CO2 levels are assumed < 280 ppm at these times, which should make you think again. The authors conclude that during the Roman Optimum " ... developed the greatest ancient civilization of all time, the Roman one. We hypothesise the relevance that these climate conditions may had in the expansion of the Roman Empire and its collapse with the general development of colder conditions." (the original figure left has been edited by me by adding text and arrows).

Tell this the climate alarmists of today!

Meridional Distributions of Historical Zonal Averages and Their Use to Quantify the Global and Spheroidal Mean Near-Surface Temperature of the Terrestrial Atmosphere

A very important new paper by Kramm et al. shows how historic papers from 1850 to 1910 evaluate zonal yearly average temperatures, and how they differ to the "consensus" values.
The authors conclude that the historic data do not show global warming during the last 100 years, as the older temperatures are higher than those given by the consensus climatology.
Read the blog for part1 and part2.

Temperature and mineral dust variability recorded in two low-accumulation Alpine ice cores over the last millenium A very interesting paper by Bohleber et al. published in "Climate of the Past". From 2 ice core drillings done at the Colle Gnifetti (Monte Rosa) they deduce from the observed dust layers a temperature profile going back to 800 AD. And surely, the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and the LIA (Little Ice Age) are there, all periods which have been belittled in the TAR of the IPCC (because old warming periods not caused by CO2 do not fit into the narrative!). More on the blog!
Nicht predigen sollt ihr, sondern forschen! Outstanding article by Thea Dorn in the German ZEIT online
"...Wissenschaftler haben durch Zweifel zu glänzen, nicht durch Rechthaberei...Eine der tragischsten Taten, die eine Demokratie begehen kann, ist Selbstunterwerfung unter die rigiden Handlungsvorschriften einer klerikal auftretenden Naturwissenschaft aus Angst vor dem Unterworfensein unter die Macht der Natur..."
Impact des EnR Watch this very interesting video of the presentation of Marc Jancovici on the impact of renewable energy in France (French spoken). I do not agree with Jancovici on his appreciation of climate urgency, but as an engineer he has very clear and solid arguments concerning intermittent renewables and nuclear energy.
Especially interesting is his graph showing that  the price of "renewable" electricity risks becoming negative above a certain percentage of produced wind-power w.r. to the installed capacity (a more and more frequent situation in Germany, for instance).
Open letter to the KNAW

 ... (Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences) by Prof. Guus Berkhout, founder of CLINTEL (Climate Intelligence Foundation), asking for not excluding scientists with alternative views.
" What concerns me about this embarrassing state of affairs is that science is being misused to provide spurious justification for wishful climate policy and that the scientific establishment is looking the other way...The IPCC was supposed to be a scientific initiative – I was a strong supporter of it myself. However, it has emerged as a political organisation that abuses science."

Read also this open letter by CLINTEL "Fight Virus not Carbon"

On Behalf of Environmentalists I apologize for the Climate Scare

writes well known environmentalist and climate activist Michael Shellenberger. In his list of what to do note this:

- 100% renewables would require increasing the land use for energy from today's 0.5% to 50%
- the most important thing for reducing air pollution and carbon emissions is moving from wood to coal to petroleum to natural gas to uranium

An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions

Prof. Richard Lindzen has published a very interesting paper "An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions". Please read the blog!

E-cars may cause 73% higher GHG emissions than modern Diesel cars.

New study by Ulrich Schmidt (Kiel Policy Brief 143, Jun. 2020, Institut für Weltwirtschaft) on E-cars: "...führen zu 73% höheren Treibhausgasmissionen als moderne Diesel-PKW"

Frost Saints days are cooling The Frost Saints or Ice Saints days ("Eisheiligentage") are cooling since 1998 at meteoLCD, and still longer in Germany. Did you hear about that in the media?
Injected CO2 mineralizes in just 2 years

Research done at a geothermal power station in Iceland has shown that gazeous CO2 dissolved in water which is injected into underground basalt rocks mineralizes in just 2 years, and such will be safely stored away indefinitely without any risk of leakage as they may exist in traditional CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) systems..

Ongoing increase in cosmic radiation

The ongoing solar minimum continues to increase the cosmic radiation at the altitudes of transatlantic flights (20000 - 40000 feet). The hourly dose may reach about 3800nSv, to be compared to the 80nSv common at ground level (look at our radioactive measurements!)

Similar sinus pattern of the velocity of warming and the change in ocean heat content

Look at these graphs which show a similar 60-year sinus-pattern for the velocity of warming and the change in ocean heat content. Note also that the velocity of warming seems to be uncorrelated to the yearly CO2 emissions (here gigaton C/year, right axis, red plot).

12 very logical questions

The German philosoph Gunnar KAISER asks 12 very logical, but easy to understand questions regarding climate and its variation; he asks these questions to the famous TV physics professor Harald Lesch. Watch the YouTube video (German spoken, about 17 minutes) and just try to follow the logic! h.t. Die Kalte Sonne

HALEU

Read this interesting article on HALEU (high-assay, low enriched) nuclear fuel from disused ERBII reactor and its planned use in the Oklo Aurora micro-reactor at INL (Idaho National Laboratory). HALEU is seen by many as the fuel for small reactors and as a tool to recup energy from spent nuclear fuel.

The Oklo Aurora reactor is a reactor running on metallic fuel, without any liquid circuits.

The baseline problem of temperature series Clive BEST has a good article on the baseline problem of temperature series, and why the choice of the baseline period is influencing the concordance (or discordance) between models and observational data: "It is the model projections which change dramatically when using different baselines. One should always bear this in mind whenever  an ensemble of models seem to perfectly  match the data well."
Why Greta Thunberg should go back to school Read this essay by Alessandro van den Berg, an economics teacher from the Netherlands and also a person with autism. (7 Jan 2020).
There is no Climate Emergency

800 scientists wrote a letter to the UN Secretary-General with the message that there is no climate emergency.They write that "warming is far slower as predicted", that "climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities" and that "our advice to political leaders is that science should strive for a significantly better understanding of the climate system, while politics should focus on minimizing potential climate damage by prioritizing adaption strategies based on proven and affordable technologies"

Read the text here with the (provisional) list of the signatures. Read also here, watch this video (3.2 min.) by Prof. Denis Rancourt and this video (17 min) of Prof. Guus Berkhout from COP25.

Decadal Changes of the Reflected Solar Radiation and the Earth Energy Imbalance

 

Steven DeWitte et al. (RMI and Uni. Brussels)have published a very interesting paper on the changes of the imbalance of the Earth's radiative budget during the period 2010-2018. Despite an increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases this imbalance has not increased (as one would expect) but ***decreased***, in correlation with the changes in the heat content of the oceans. They also find that the influence of changes in global sea ice to the amount of reflected solar radiation is small.
We’ve just had the best decade in human history. Seriously. For the coming days of joy and appeasement, read this optimistic comment of Dr. Matt Ridley in The Spectator. "A modern irony is that many green policies advocated now would actually reverse the trend towards using less stuff....Environmental opposition to nuclear power has hindered the generating system that needs the least land, least fuel and least steel or concrete per megawatt...Technology has put us on a path to a cleaner, greener planet. We don’t need to veer off in a new direction. If we do, we risk retarding progress.".
Click here for a cartoon by Josh.
The Toxic Rhetoric of Climate Change Excellent text by Prof. Judith Curry from Climate etc. (14-Dec_2019):
 
" ...Over the past century, there has been a 99% decline in the death toll from natural disasters, during the same period that the global population quadrupled....
... We still don’t have a realistic assessment of how a warmer climate will impact us and whether it is ‘dangerous.’ ...
... We have not only oversimplified the problem of climate change, but we have also oversimplified its ‘solution’".
Has global warming already arrived? An interesting paper by Varotsos and Efstathiou (Climate Research Group, Uni Athens) published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics:  The authors analyze satellite data and find that the observed temperature field in the global troposphere and lower stratosphere is different from what global warming theory says. They conclude that
"...it is not possible to reliably support the view of the presence of global warming in the sense of an enhanced greenhouse effect due to human activities".
Capacity factors for wind and solar in the UK (2002-2018) Here are the capacity factors for UK wind and solar production from 2002 to 2018, and notice how solar PV remains practically constant at an appalling low figure of 10% (to be compared to nuclear or gas at ~90%). More here.

Click here to see the (similar) situation in Luxembourg (2012 to 2018) and here to see the Nov.2019 solar production in Germany.
Interview with Prof. Hans von Storch Prof. Hans von Storch (Institut f. Meteorlogie, Uni Hamburg) gave a resounding interview (in German) to FOCUS online: On the climate protests of Fridays for Future: "Wenn es sich in der Forderung nach symbolischen Akten erschöpft, bringt es nichts...Panik ist ein miserabler Ratgeber..."
On (some) climate researchers: "Sie sollten nur nicht anfangen zu sagen, dass ihr Problem viel wichtiger ist als andere Probleme..." Read also here.
Climate limits and timelines Read the comments by Prof. Judith Curry.
Podcast Dr. Stefan Kröpelin (Uni Köln), one of the best desert specialists, has been interviewed by 2 journalists of the Rheinische Post (in German). Listen to this exciting podcast (46 minutes) where he resists to accept continuous suggestions to scary climate change:
Listen at minutes 10, 19, 21, 25, 29
(ht. notrickszone)
International Energy Outlook 2019 ... published by the EIA (US Energy Information Administration).
Consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is expected to rise in 2050 from actual 50 to about 80 million barrels/day in non-OECD countries, and remain more or less stable at 45 in OECD countries; so total world consumption would be about 130 million barrels/day in 2050 (about 100 in 2018).
Observational data from tide-gauges

Even if some alarmist (German) climatists speak of accelerating global sea-level rise, this is not so. Read this comment and this report from Prof. Judith Curry. Click here for observational data from tide-gauges (Prof. Ole Humlum's climate4you web site) for many locations. The level measured by tide-gauges (relative sea-level) is what counts for eventual adaptation measures!German (Wismar) and Dutch (Den Helder) tide gauges show an unspectacular linear trend of about 1.41 mm/y since 1860 (i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age cooling).

Interruption of two decades of Jakobshavn Isbrae acceleration and thinning as regional ocean cools In these times where media news of Arctic and NH glacier meltdown might drive you into depression, recover to sanity by reading this paper by Khazendar et al, published by Nature GeoScience (paywalled, full version easy to find). This glacier is the biggest contributor to Greenland ice loss. Since 2016 its retreat and thinning has stopped: it is now thickening and advancing!
The cause is the well-documented North Atlantic cooling, itself probably influenced by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation).
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Temperature Projections

This paper by Dr. Patrick Frank (SLAC, Princeton University) did much furore and lead to many lively discussions, also among climate realists. Applying standard text-book error/uncertainty calculations, he shows that the temperature projections by the climate models can not be trusted, as the small predicted increase is buried in a huge uncertainty (because these models ignore/do not properly account for cloud forcing uncertainty). Read also the comments here and here.

Why renewables can't save the world (and why nuclear can!). Watch this TEDx (Danubia) presentation by environmentalist Michael Shellenberger.

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